The title is a paraphrase of “the scariest gold chart in the world” (target below $400) someone sent me in 2009, just before the gold price began its $900 per ounce upward journey. So that’s the contrarian caveat and indeed, I hesitate to write bearish things at a time when small speculators are way too short the market and everybody already seems to know how bearish things are.
But the chart is the chart and without further ado, meet the scariest US stock market chart in the world. I was ready to try a long on the SPY yesterday, but decided to wait because of this (being posted here because it never made it into NFTRH 381’s already bloated 42 pages) chart and some others in the face of which I just could not rationalize a bullish stance. Capital preservation is job 1 now, not bullish speculation. I’ll let the bulls prove something first.
Here’s today’s swing-trading watch-list:
Short Phillips 66 (PSX)
The H&S on SPX broke down yesterday with alternate targets at a retest of 1812 and 1797. I’m not seeing any reason to think that we won’t at least see a retest of 1812 and given that today is also a cycle trend day, it’s very possible that we see that target made today. SPX 60min chart:
Well, I could get used to this. It seems that the bulls keep trying to power the market higher, but in their new role as Feckless Flops, they just can’t do it, even with central bank ninnies running around trying to jawbone (a trick which has run its course). Witness what keeps happening with surprising regularity:
The following is the opening segment of this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 381…
A picture is worth 4-plus years and thousands of words, and the picture below has a lot to say. I’ll say some words as well, since I have kept them bottled up for years in an effort to make sure we operate with discipline as opposed to gold bug style emotion.
The bear market and subsequent inflation-fueled credit bubble early last decade was when I first started paying close attention to macro markets (as opposed to stock trading, which I had done for a few years prior) and how they operate. Having seen well paid professionals lose half of my IRA in 2002, I took over all of our finances and never looked back. But I needed to understand how markets worked and that has been a challenging and rewarding endeavor, not to mention an ongoing learning experience.