Took My Put Profits

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Earlier this morning, I sold my SPY October $245 puts for an overnight profit of over 50%. I have several remarks about this:

  • It’s kind of stupid of me to buy options that don’t expire for something like ten weeks and sell them the next freakin’ day, but what can I say………I’m a wimp.
  • I’m going to be driving 20 hours (round trip) to see the eclipse Monday morning, and frankly I’d like to enjoy it without worrying about my stupid options position.
  • I hardly ever trade options.………literally one trade for every few hundred equity trades…..but I had a “feeling” yesterday morning to give it a shot.
  • Most importantly, this trendline below compels me to not be greedy.

0818-spy

Of course, this all probably means a CRASH on Monday, so………you’re welcome!

Does Your Neck Hurt Yet From The Metals Action?

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Reading most metals analysis in 2017 has been like watching a tennis match with the analysis going back and forth over the net between bullishness and bearishness.  As the market reaches its highs, analysts turn bullish, and as the market reaches its lows, analysts turn terribly bearish. And, when the sentiment of the market has reached these extremes, it has marked the point in time when the markets have turned.

As I have also tried to warn all year, anyone who uses trend lines as their primary method of analysis has been terribly whipsawed, as the metals love to exceed trend lines right before they reverse strongly.  This is one of the biggest reasons many have become terribly bullish at the highs (right before the market has reversed), and terribly bearish at the lows (right before the market reversed as well).  So, does your neck hurt from all this back and forth during this whipsaw? (more…)

Bigger Dips

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The daily middle band is a, and perhaps the, classic place for a bear move rally to fail, and after three days of failing to break above the SPX daily middle band this rally failed there into today’s solid trend down day.

Since I capped the SPX chart below SPX has delivered a new retracement low. I’d like to see a move down to the 2405 area next to follow the path that I sketched in on the SPX chart at the end of July. Ideally SPX would then backtest 2450, possibly hitting the daily lower band at a lower level there, and then decline to the 2320 area, very possibly making the main retracement low there and setting up a solid dip buy opportunity into the end of the year. SPX daily chart:

170817 SPX Daily (more…)