Post veers at little at the end, may require a couple reads…
[edit2] Attn: Subscribers, material dovetails with market analysis in #318
[edit3] Charts are quite large; click for full size
MarketWatch announces that the US stock market is back to the ‘real’ highs of the last secular bull market, prior to the dot.com/tech bubble blow out. Here is the Dow adjusted for CPI, finally paying back investors after a 14 year debit in ‘real’ terms.
Although I wouldn’t short a U.S. ETF with a 10 foot pole these days, I am totally comfortable shorting Russia at present price levels:
Here’s today’s swing-trading watch-list:
Long Corning (GLW)
When Bill Gross jumped ship from Pimco to Janus, JNS stock gapped higher (a gap so large, it’s plainly visible even on a multi-year chart). Even with this “Gross premium”, the stock looks poised for continued strength. Just sayin’.
It seems almost beyond belief that last month we were running around barefoot in a VIX that was in the 30s. We have now returned to the moribund slog of a sub-teen VIX. It hasn’t broken its uptrend yet, but by God, this week is looking like a snoozer.
I’ve done more work on the daily closes over the 5 DMA stats this morning and taken these back to 1970, during which time there have been only five previous examples. On Friday SPX closed above this for the 26th consecutive day and matched the longest previous example during this period which was in 1986. As and when we see SPX close back below the 5 DMA we can expect a minimum 2%+ retracement there but otherwise the historical stats were not at all bearish and I will be talking about these more tomorrow. Meanwhile the stats are on the chart below. SPX daily 5 DMA chart: