Expiration Charts!

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I have an extremely cool new feature for you SlopeCharts folks out there: earnings dates charts. This will be of particular interest to you options traders. Allow me to explain………..

What we’ve done is merged together historical stock data with earnings announcements so you can see how a stock behaves as it approaches its earnings day. By default, we show you every day for twenty days in advance of earnings, as well as the day of and the day after earnings (you can change how many days via a dropdown). Using it, as with all things SlopeCharts, is simple. Just choose the Earnings Dates item from the new Chart Mode menu item:

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We Will All Go Together When We Go

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I remember seeing the very talented satirist Tom Lehrer on his last world tour in the 1980s, ‘The Poisoning Pigeons In The Park’ tour. Today’s title is a small homage to one of my favorites in his repertoire, as well as a note that as and when equities are ready for the next leg down, all the main equity indices, and very possibly oil, are likely to participate. If you’d like to see the title song for this post you can see that here.

When that be? As soon as we see a break and conversion of the ES weekly pivot at 2703/4. I’m leaning towards to seeing a retest of Friday’s high before we see that happen. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF: (more…)

Semi Bearish?

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Over the last several years, beginning in 2013 I’ve made post titles like ‘Semi Bullish‘ in response to the bullish leading edge economic cycle indicator, the Semiconductor Equipment sector and its implications for broad stocks and the economy. Those implications of economic acceleration were along these lines… Semi Equipment Book-to-Bill (b2b) → Broad Semi → Manufacturing → Employment → Firm Economy. Shortly after the b2b was noted as bullish the SOX index and the S&P 500 broke out to new highs, not to even hint at looking back until the rocky 2015-2016 period.

The 2013 period launched everything we know as bullish today. (more…)

Short Week

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It’s going to be a short week, hopefully for two reasons. The first is guaranteed – – we had to take yesterday off to celebrate Presidents’ Day (which I’m sure everyone did with great flair). The second, which is off to a good start, is for this market to start weakening again. I’m entering the day 136% short and eager to get much shorter, particularly with interest-sensitive items.

Here’s the intraday on the ES over the past few days:

esdown (more…)

Obviously

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There are countless quotes, aphorisms, and bromides related to the world of trading. One of the best known is Joe Granville‘s: “If it’s obvious, it’s obviously wrong.”

Having lived with, considered, and occasionally applied this nugget of wisdom over the years, my conclusion is that what’s “wrong” is actually the quote itself. I believe its principal appeal is that it has that counter-intuitive, funny-because’s-it’s-ironically-true sensibility to it. Kind of like Mark Twain’s “….the coldest winter I ever spent was a summer in San Francisco.” Har de har har. (more…)