Tapping the Brakes?

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Since it seems the fate of the free world depends on this stupid healthcare vote, let’s talk about something – ANYTHING – else!

Below is the front month of crude oil. As much as I’d like it to plunge into the abyss, what I “like” doesn’t have much say-so in market direction. It seems to me that the commodity is steadying itself at the trendline and could be preparing for a turnaround back to major resistance at about $52.30 or so. Just a thought.

0324-crude

For equities in general, though, I would simply offer this headline on ZH that just came up:

0324-gart

‘Trump Trade’ Intact!

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The S&P 500’s ‘Trump Trade’ is still intact per a chart guy actually worth listening to, Rich Ross, who I met 7 years ago when he worked at the firm (Auerbach-Grayson) run by my late friend, Jonathan Auerbach.  Nice guy with nice, clear charts and no need to over complicate things.

Here he shows SPY above its SMA 50, which folks, is one of the reasons why I covered my own short positions.  The other reasons were that the SOX was still on its short-term moving averages and Goldman and the Financials were smashing into lateral support and getting oversold.

This one chart shows why ‘the Trump trade’ is still intact (video link) (more…)

The Rally Is Flagging

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The rally that the bulls failed to manage yesterday has been delivered today, with SPX sustaining some trade above the daily lower band, though albeit not by a lot. So far the rally has retraced 50% of Tuesday’s decline while forming a very nice rising channel. So far this is a classic bear flag setup that on a break of channel support should at minimum deliver a retest of yesterday’s low. SPX 5min chart:

170323 SPX 5min

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Don’t Feed the Bears

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by Avi Gilburt

In a recent update, I pointed towards the 2,335 SPX region as the next likely target in the market. This week, the market has finally obliged, and taken us to our next waypoint.

As I have been noting for several weeks, the market has been much more bearish than I had expected with only a slight drop off the all-time highs. Moreover, my ideal expectations had us dropping even lower towards the 2,335 SPX region before setting up another rally attempt.

But, the fact that the market has become so bearish of late, even though we have not dropped much off the highs, tells me that the market may only be setting up the bears for a whipsaw they may not soon forget.

When I look across the web and read what many are “feeling” right now, most seem to still believe the market has gone farther than it should. Many are now calling this the end to the “Trump Rally.” Many even believe that the market has hit its high for 2017. Week after week, we see one top caller after another coming out with reason after reason as to why the market is just “too high.” The market has supposedly so far surpassed its fundamental valuation that many are absolutely convinced we have seen a blow-off top.

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