Balls, balls, and Avalon.

A strange way to start a post, but it's relevant - - or at least real. I receive a lot of nice emails about my blog on a daily basis, for some reason reason, two back-to-back (or perhaps front-to-front) emails congratulated me on my cajones. I'm not sure what the term is in the zeitgeist right now; perhaps Helen Mirren's utterance (in a cultured tone, of course) during the Oscars did the trick.

As for Avalon, during my demonstration yesterday at my company's headquarters, I had a crew of about a dozen men in the room checking out the new blog platform. Things came to a halt when someone saw Avalon's avatar. "Who's that?" Oh, that's a popular commenter on my blog. "Is there a bigger picture?" Sigh. And this is in Salt Lake City, center of all things Mormon.

One thoughtful reader sent me a couple of images from Elliott Wave International which I found fascinating. It illustrates how the Fed's actions tightly correlated to the 3-month T-Bill yields. Many people will find this patently obvious, but I've never seen it expressed so well in chart form.

What this indicates is that the Fed is "due" to cut a full 100 basis points off the rate (assuming nothing changes!). I'm all for it. Get those interest rate cuts done, Ben. Then you're painted into a corner.

Thanks to my handy-dandy new blog platform, you can see for yourself for my positions are right now. Here are a few favorites: Baker Hughes (BHI) is a terrific head and shoulders pattern. Energy has been pretty cruel to me lately (I've got huge put positions on XLE and OIH), but this is one of my kinder energy plays.

Genco (GNK) is more speculative. You can see the last high back in December was a skosh higher than the present one. Obviously I'd like to see this fall away, since January's tumble cut the price of this issue nearly in half (which, percentage-wise, which be far richer for my options).

And on the conservative side of the ledger is Disney (DIS) whose "slope of hope" is a beautiful site to me. The trendline gives me a nice, clean stop loss price.

I have shied away from banks and investment banks in general - -  I had a ball with BSC and the like last summer - - but one exception is Bank of America (BAC). This, like all my positions right now, is a put.

Honeywell (HON) has been a source of frustration for me, but I've bought puts again since it is at the high end of its approximately $52-$61 range (which is some nine months old at this point).

Today was really good to me. I got out of my housing longs yesterday (taking about 15% profits on those stock positions in my little IRA account) and the equity market's softness today was terrific. If only energy could join in the downward action, I'd be a happy camper. Stay tuned.

This is going to be a short entry. I'm going to do my real post later today.

I've been following AutoDesk (ADSK) for a while. I've shied away from it, because it seemed to be exhibiting a relatively bullish breakout pattern in the face of a weak market. Here, for example, is what it looked like as it seemed to be breaking to new highs. Notice something, however. The price has trouble staying above that horizontal line. It breaks above it, sinks well below it, then tries to break out again. Not to anthropomorphize the stock too much, but it seems to be struggling.

Then something truly serious happens - - the trendline is broken. So what we have here is better than simply a broken trendline break. We have a trendline break following what should have been a marvelous bullish breakout. That one-two punch makes the likelihood of a fall that much more potent. You can click on the "Present" tab to see the aftermath.

So even if you are a bear, keep an eye on stocks that seem bullish. You may find other opportunities like these.

I'll see you in a few hours........I've got some meetings, but it was an interesting day today, and I've got some things to say about it. 

Welcome to the first public sneak peek of the Slope of Hope on its new platform. Although there are bound to be plenty of rough edges, I look forward to your feedback.

Besides the goodies located on the right column, one of the nice features about this new blog system is the ability to see 'before' and 'after' charts. That way, when you look at older blog entries, you can see how charts have done since the original posting.

For instance, let's say I was writing positively about Mosaic (MOS). The chart would look like it does below as of the writing. But if, much later, you were looking at it, you could click on Present to see how it looks with all the up-to-date prices, and since this was a bullish idea, the area shaded in green would indicate what the chart looked like when I first wrote about it. Try it!

By the same token, a bearish suggestion (such as NutriSystem, symbol NTRI) made last year would look like the chart below, but now that several months have gone by, clicking the Present tab would update that chart and show the original area in pink.

The remainder of the charts are some of my current favorite shorts. Clicking the Present button won't really make any difference (unless you are reading this well past February 2008!) since these are new or at least very recent ideas. So here we go.......

Akamai (AKAM) did a nice break and retracement already, and there are actually two horizontal lines at play here. I've got a nice tight stop on this one, and a break beneath that lower horizontal line would be sensational.

Readers already know of my love for ATI. This has pushed up against its former support (now resistance) level, represented by the horizontal line. This is probably one of my favorite patterns right now.

Dryships (DRYS) is more speculative. I've drawn the Fibonacci retracements, and it already did a massive bounce from about $50 to $90. If this was truly a retracement, we could ride this all the way down to $35 or so, the next level lower.

Genco (GNK) is, like DRYS, also somewhat speculative, but there's a lot of potential "juice" in these puts, because intrinsic value gains or 10, 20, or 30 points are possible.

A much larger and more conservative stock, HPQ, had great earnings recently which caused a nice bounce. This, to me, was a super entry point, because it made it almost the entire way back to its major broken trendline. So we have two resistance levels working in our favor, represented by the broken trendline as well as the horizontal line.

I've been very bearish on the Dow Transports, but I haven't found a good way to short the index itself. Ryder Systems is a play based on my bearishness there.

Walt Disney (DIS) has been sporting a terrific cascading series of lower lows and lower highs, and I entered a put position in the $33 area during its most recent bounce.

I've got a lot of energy puts. Apache (APA) is one of my favorites based on its high price and clean stop.

Long term chartists could make a plausible argument for ACI being in a very bullish pattern. If it breaks above the horizontal line, I agree with them. But if it fails this breakout, as I'm betting it will, my puts will prosper.

Lastly, Canadian Natural (CFQ) has broken a major trendline and may be finishing up a complex head and shoulders pattern.

My main purpose in this entry is for you to get a sneak peek of the new blog. Please add something to the Comments section with any feedback, and if you feel particularly strongly about something, drop me an email. Thanks for taking the time to stop by!