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05/22/2008

Fat!

Enough of this fat talk. You've caught me. I'm obese. Morbidly so. All the photographs you've seen recently were heavily Photoshopped. Here's the real Tim at work. May God forgive me for what I am.

I'm also fat with profits. Relatively speaking, at least.

It's interesting how the volume pushed much higher yesterday (during the 200+ point plunge) and shrank tremendously today with the piddling 21 point gain. (I also noticed how Marketwatch heralded this "bounce back", even though it was only 10% of the prior day's loss.)

The $NDX, which is my big put position, has been marching up an ascending channel since mid-March. Breaking 1,940 would put a stop to that nonsense. 

I remain cautiously skeptical about the S&P 500. I've tinted in the bullish case. 

But I also think the FOREX markets are pointing to a strengthening dollar. That will rough up the oil markets pretty good, should it happen. 

My AGU puts are doing OK and I like the prospects of this stock heading down to the low 60s. 

Akamai also had its first nice whack today. I'd be a holder of these puts down to about $30. 

Here's one of my hockey stick plays - CNQ. The target price for the inverted head and shoulders was met (and exceed by a point or two), and I could easily see this getting chopped 20 points. 

I've got CAT puts with a stop at last week's high. Failed bullish breaking is my thinking here. 

First Solar ("fizzler") has lost 15% of its value since last week. Cracking that ascending trendline at about $250 would mean party time. Gosh, where's Beanie? Oh, I forgot. He's mute when things aren't going his way. Puss. 

I've got puts on RIMM too. Another failed bullish breakout. 

Sunpower is another bearish play on solar. This stock is obviously a lot weaker technically than FSLR. 

BIDU dropping 20 points - whoo hoo! It's easy to picture another 100 points getting nuked off this baby. 

ISRG was another honey today. Just look at the price collapse away from that trendline! 

I've got a variety of real estate shorts, which has my interest after a long hiatus. 

And I have trouble believing generic online brokerages are going to thrive once the bear market resumes. 

For an energy company, this is a pathetic chart. 

SLB is yet another failed bullish breakout (FBB, not to be confused with BFF). 


And that's all I've got to say about that.

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