Slope Of Hope with Tim Knight

SOH Bailout Drinking Game

I intend to start a new national craze with the Slope of Hope Bailout Drinking Game. Here we go:

1. Whenever a politician uses the term "Wall Street" and "Main Street" in the same sentence, take a shot of beer;
2. If the phrase "preserving the American dream" is uttered, take a shot of beer;
3. Whenever JP Morgan or Bank of America takes over another failed institution, take two shots of beer (or one shot of the hard liquor of your choice);
4. If a politician mentions "caps on execution compensation", apologize to the photograph of Hank Paulson on your wall and take three shots of beer;
5. If President Bush declares that this crisis is no time for "partisan politics", clean your shot glass;
6. If the Dow Jones net change for the day is up or down triple digits, mix yourself a martini and drink it;
7. If Gary Savage tries to moderate Tim's trading with cautious admonishments, drink a cup of black coffee;
8. If Ned does a post, take a bathroom break;
   
9. If "progress" or "a breakthrough" on the bailout is announced and, within twelve hours of such announcement, there is still no deal announced, mix yourself a drink with a tiny umbrella in it; remove the umbrella, then consume beverage.

I am, as always, open to further ideas.

Now We Wait

Until Sunday evening, there isn't much left to say. If a bailout plan is hammered out and agreed upon, I suppose markets will rally - - maybe even rally big. If there is stalemate, I suppose markets will be soft.

The chart of the DIA sort of says it all: (1) a decent bullish engulfing pattern today, pushing the Dow up triple digits after opening down triple digits; (2) and yet absolutely anemic volume, day after day, since September 18th's madness.

This was a good week for me; my portfolio hit a new peak at today's close. I am vulnerable, absolutely, to some kind of bullish shock on Monday (I'm saying this mainly for the benefit of those bulls that grit their teeth when they've been reading about my profits lately; some have actually complained via email). But you want to know the funny part? If a bailout is announced, I will view it at a selling opportunity, and if a bailout stumbles, I will view it as a buying opportunity. How's that for being a contrarian?

In any case, there's just no visibility right now with all the political hijinx. I'm going to enjoy the debates tonight and will be watching what happens in D.C. with great interest this weekend. I'll probably do a post Sunday night. See you then.

Strong Transports

One encouraging sign for the bulls is that Transports have been holding up well. Notice how nicely they've been tracking above their fan lines.

Going Out on a Limb

As frequent readers know, I started the day with 70 SPY puts. I sold 20 near the open. Then I sold 25 more. However, I re-purchased 25 (and then 20 more, bringing me back up to 70) near the highs of the day, and I once again have 70 puts on SPY (I have trimmed here and there, but by and large by positions are unchanged).

I realize there is a risk of the fine public servants in D.C. annoucing on Sunday God-knows-what and the market spiking higher. I am willing to take that risk, and I am willing to ride it out. The whole world is going to be on pins and needles this weekend, and if there's no deal, what's going to start to dawn on people is that the world still hasn't ended yet, and maybe we don't need to screw with things.

Buy RIMM?

I see a lot of folks talking about going long RIMM, getting RIMM calls, and so forth.

You might be right. And you might make hundreds of percent on the trade. And I won't. Because I'm not going to do this.

I ask myself the question, particularly when tempted by a "sure fire" thing like this...........is there a technical basis for this trade? Yes, it's fallen by over 25%, but is there firm support at this level? Looking at the chart, I don't see any. Again, this stock might move ten points higher next week. Or not. But the way I trade, I want the chart on my side, and there's nothing that tells me whether this stock is going to be down or up another ten points. It's simply falling, and that's all I see.

The GOP Digs In

It's amazing to watch the SPY go flying up and down based on every little word the politicians are uttering today. We are in that most uncomfortable of places..........the no man's land between the upper and lower extremes. I've trimmed my SPY puts by about 2/3rds and my OIH puts by only about 10%. Otherwise, I'm holding strong. You can refer to my watch lists on the right at any time to see all my positions.

Clean Gap Fill

This is beautiful on the SPY.

The big question, of course, is whether to hold over the weekend. Because on Monday, it's either Deal or No Deal, with the implications thereof. I'm inclined to stick with my SPY position until a possible wipeout on the SPY.

Stubborn Yourself to Death

A good morning so far. OIH is one streaming chart I watch constantly, and - - in spite of gold's strength - - it's terribly weak. In fact, it's down more than any of the big equity indexes. As long as we hold below 171.54, I am staying with this short. A break below 143.65 (the horizontal line you see below) would mean a big break down. I also accept the possibility that we may just be starting to form the right shoulder of a gigantic head and shoulders pattern, and if so, the breakdown of this chart won't happen until next year.

Freaky Friday

I was up again early this morning, just to be fully prepared for the day ahead. Equity futures have been down pretty hard all through the night, with the S&P down about 20 points as of this writing (90 minutes before the opening bell). It was only a week ago today that the same market was up about 60 points based on the excitement over taxpayers getting saddled with a trillion dollars in debt to forgive Wall Street's misdeeds. Time and events sure do move fast in these markets.

In fact, that swift movement is probably is what is making things so interesting right now. Congress, bless its heart, chose not to rubber-stamp a 2.5 page memo handing the reigns of the country over to Paulson. So now it's a game of chicken. On one side you're going to continue to hear the breathless warnings about how the economy will collapse into a protracted recession unless the plan is passed; and on the other, you will have those who want to consider alternatives first (while nervously eyeing daily events, such as the collapse of the largest S&L in history last evening).

Comments reflect the rapid deterioration in focus. We used to talk about individual stock picks; then we started talking about politics (since that dwarfs earnings these days in driving stock prices, RIMM notwithstanding); and now we're talking about what kind of containers can be purchased at Target to store cash. I'm just waiting for folks to break out in discussion about the right ammo to buy.

The challenge, as always, on mornings like this is whether to take profits or let things run. I am feeling very good about the positions I am in, so I have no intention of making an exit. I have only one index position (70 in-the-money November puts on SPY) and perhaps I'll sell 20 of those early just to take some profits off the table. Anyway, I'm going to take advantage of my early awakening and read the paper. Good morning to you all.

Mayhem in the Streets of Palo Alto

OK, they're not exactly turning police cars over, but this is a pretty awesome protest.