Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Long Ideas for Later

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I am still seeing a ton of short opportunities. But I'm heading out for a while to ski, so this will be my last post for quite a while.

For those of you wondering if I've heard about the trader tax, yes, yes, yes, I have.

I've put together a list of attractive long positions, but I'm not buying these now. I'm not ready yet. But if we get a good wash-out, I like the looks of these. Again, I'm taking no action yet. Just watching closely for later.

Commodity Base Failure

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I offer the below chart on DBA as an object lesson in the dangers of anticipating pattern completion. A person observing this chart on, say, February 6th, might have gone long DBA in a big way in anticipation of a completed inverted H&S pattern. But what happened? The shares just kept drifting lower, and yesterday they violated the low of the left shoulder, thus making a true inverted H&S impossible.

I have been short DBA for about a week and covered at a decent profit this morning. I say "decent" because this isn't exactly a volatile instrument. All the same, patterns don't count until they're complete. Just sayin'.