Slope of Hope Blog Posts

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Little Quizzies and Big Testies

By -

I'm up bright and early for some last-minute studying/cramming on my CMT test. I just wanted to do a quick comment-cleaner with two remarks.

The first is that I noticed this comment from lashio a couple of posts ago in response to my "bulls are 100% in control" missive:

You are letting your personal bias creep in here. "this market can't be
trusted" by whom? when others said the same thing on way down, ie
"bears are in charge, unprincipled unfundamentally negative etc" that
was just silliness but wisdom now in reverse? bottom line: trend is
your friend until it isn't. your are still trying to pick the top and
just itching for things to go your way so you can make it again on way
down. why bother? you are quick draw mcgraw anyway. wait for the market
to really tell you the reverse. not trying to be smart here as i see a
lot of the sentiment here now as the reverse of my own when things were
going down. i had done real well on way up and hard to break your way
of thinking.

Lashio is absolutely right (and, as I've mentioned before, his avatar is one of the more awesome ones on Slope). One of my CMT books speaks at length about this cognitive bias.

Yes, it's a frustrating market, but blaming it on Goldman Sachs, the PPT, the MMs, or Yosemite Sam, for that matter, is pointless. The market is what it is. If a law is based that says the market will go up 50 points per day until it reaches 20,000, well, I guess we'd better get on board. So thank you, Lashio, for pointing out the error in my disposition.

The second comment I wanted to make is that I noticed the blog that shall not be named seems to have reached a bit of a cracking point as well. I am surprised how quickly a shucking of bearishness has swept the blogosphere and the comments section (to be clear, TBTSNBN isn't bullish, but the tone is about as close as throwing-in-the-towel-for-now that I can remember ever reading). I will leave it to you to decide what all this sudden lack of bearishness means for the market.

For my own self, I assure you, as I look at the big index charts, I simply shake my head and say OTIS. I'll have more to say about my CMT exam is over. I'd better hit the books one last time. (Oh, as one last aside, I'll mention the gent from FinancialCrisisCards.com sent me a deck of this fun playing cards. Check 'em out; they're pretty funny).