Slope Of Hope with Tim Knight

Jagged Edges

I am now about 24 hours behind on hanging out in the comments section, and the stress is starting to show. I really feel "out of the flow" if I'm not with my beloved Slopers.

Lately I've noticed on the /ES some very spikey behavior is taking place. You may think this happens all the time, but believe me, I have the /ES burned into my brain, and I know how it behaves - - things are changing, because these fake-outs are getting almost commonplace (and, for those who are all thumbs, can be dastardly expensive!)

I just think it's interesting - - and perhaps indicative of a forthcoming change.

By the way, my Russell puts were my biggest cash winner today. It's nice to be working with my good buddy Russell again after all this time!

No Advice

I have tried, on my Contact Page, to be as firm as I can without being rude, and yet each day at least several people write to me asking for advice or one kind of another. Right now on my contact page it says:

please do not ask for advice of any kind. I will not offer any opinions about anything to any individual (although if you have an idea you'd like to share with me, I'm all ears). By "advice", this includes stop prices, market direction, whether I'm long or short something (check my watch lists!), what color I think the sky is, etc. I will not respond to anything asking for any opinion on any particular investment or technique. I hate to be rude about it, but so many people have ignored softer warnings that I had to kick it up a notch.

Because I am cursed with good manners, I cannot simply ignore all the emails I get (as most popular bloggers would, I imagine), nor am I inclined to make the above text so obnoxious that no one ever writes me about anything (because folks offering topic suggestions, interesting articles, and so forth, are absolutely welcome).

So please - I'm beggin' - don't ask for advice in any way/shape/form. Pretty please. With sugar on top.

A Thing of Beauty

This, my friends, is a head and shoulders pattern. And today - for the first time since last year, I believe - I am accumulating puts on the Russell 2000. And I'm just going to keep buying them. I've been waiting all year for this index to be ready. For me, the time is either here or close at hand. Thus I am starting with a small position and will accumulate, even if we push higher.

Wake Me When It's Over

Some More Puts

As we approach the end of September - - month seven in which common sense is held hostage - - I am slowing increasing bearish positions. My bullishness from last Friday has been fully closed out (mostly yesterday). I don't intend to get really aggressive until we have a clear break, but I have a Mt. Everest-sized mound of buying power sitting behind me, which I will only deploy when the platform's boards are clearly splintering in two. In the meantime, here's a sampling of the stocks whose puts I bought earlier today:

Dates

For my own edification - and the knowledge of the group - could we get a consensus on the dates and the import of:

1. When the end-of-year is for investment banks and hedge funds for the sake of bonus computation? I've heard end of September some places and end of October in others;
2. What the significance of tomorrow's OPEX is? Again, in this context, I've heard that today (the penultimate day of the month) is the last one that matters, but perhaps that's wrong.

Thank you!

The Unwashed Masses

Well, the consumer confidence report came out for the month, and while the consensus from the experts was a level between 55 and 60, the actual figure, 53.1, was below even the lower part of the range. Word on the street is that the general public isn't buying all the green shoots B.S. My own portfolio screen flipped from red to green in the span of about 3 seconds after the report came out.

The Rocket Report

Some days I have the time and energy and creativity to make Slope feel like SNL in 1987, and there are other times - like Monday - when it seems like SNL 1981. Joe Piscopo, get off my computer!

I'm catching up on charts (which seems to be taking place at Dracula-like hours lately); it's apparent from /ES that 1061 is the line in the sand. If we can stay below it, things look good for the bears short-term; and if we can actually get below 1035, things look very good medium-term.

What Could Happen?

I appreciate everyone putting up with my absence this afternoon. I remain handicapped, since I not only am away from my computer, but the one that I do have has a letter that does not function (the letter, by definition, I cannot type to you, but it is the first letter of my last name.....so I'm discovering how many words have this letter and I am having to be very creative in coming up with synonyms). Grrrrrrr............

So, now that I am dealing with a 25-character alphabet, and a lame-o little laptop, let me pose this question: what do you imagine are some extraordinary things that might happen in our society if equities wend their way down from their current levels down to - I dunno - 6,000 on the Dow over the course of a few years. I am no speculating on the effects of a crash; I am opening up the idea of a multi-year grind down, as I've often postulated.

And I'm not that interested in hearing about pitchforks and torches. Some ideas I have include:

• Renewed violent acts directly associated with financial distress;
• Multiple congressional sessions where "wrongdoers" are dragged in front of television cameras and made to wring their hands (such as we did with all the Wall Street types about nine months ago, as well as the auto manufacturers who flew in on private jets, and so forth);
• Similar congressional sessions where Federal Government members themselves are forced to wring their hands in front of a bloodthirsty public (Geithner, Bernanke, and so forth)
• A totally surprising political shift, such as what now seems beyond imagination - - Obama as a one-term president.
• Cramer getting fired or - even more extreme - CNBC shutting down altogether.

I would be interested to hear your ideas. I would also be interested in a fully functional keyboard, but you can't help with that. {Note: how did I manage to use the letter k when it is missing? I found a page that had it and did cut/paste; I am truly the MacGyver of broken laptops).

Out and About

I have a series of meetings to attend, so I'm not going to do a post for a few hours. Strange day on the market today, eh? Absolutely no news, a major market holiday (volume-wise), and yet big gains all around. Good thing I had all those long hedge positions; those were a big help!

Anyway, there are a ton of great comments, so tawk amongst yerselves, and I'll do a post late this afternoon.