Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Trident

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It helps to step back and look at the big picture. Below is the S&P 500. I see three technical factors which give me comfort in my bearish posture:

1207-spx

  1. The Fibonacci fan line dating back to 1932 – – yes, 1932 – – which has had strong import over the decades as a support/resistance level;
  2. The 50% retracement level, as measured from the market's ultimate top to March's bottom;
  3. The 61.9% Fibonacci arc.

Yep, it's a trio of Fibonacci wonderfulness. A Neapolitan mixture of drawn objects. I like what I see.

Just In Case

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Sorry that I've been so quiet this morning, everyone. I've been behind on my charts, and I've been spending a lot of time catching up. I came up with a list of long (yes, long) positions I'll probably be buying, along with their stop prices (some of which are awfully tight), since I am kind of uncomfortable being 100% short (in spite of the fact that, as of this writing, we're finally catching some softness today). For what it's worth……..

ALU……………….3.26

ASIA……………….28.30

CHKP……………….32.42

CNH……………….23.68

DST……………….41.54

FST……………….18.59

GAP……………….11.00

GCI……………….9.62

GLBL……………….5.79

LLL……………….82.27

PBI……………….22.76

PPL……………….30.19

RAIL……………….18.07

REXX……………….9.12

RRI……………….4.89

SNCR……………….14.44

STEC……………….12.19

TA……………….3.76

TEX……………….18.46

TIN……………….18.79

TRMA……………….4.91

VMW……………….41.84

Blurbs

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Just a few totally random thoughts………..

  • Vision: I saw this comment (one of the few I glanced at…..) earlier today, with respect to the fact that the bears could do no wrong in 2008 and the bulls could do no wrong in 2009: "Trading is about getting on the right side of market order flow. If you get on the wrong side of the order flow you get run over…plain and simple." I agree with that, but the problem is that this kind of hindsight declaration is useless. Anyone on the planet can look backwards and say what should have been done. It's only those bold enough to take a position (more than a few minutes forward-looking…….) and either be shamed by its failure or bask in the glow of being right that are worth a damn.
  • Proof? The following question occurred to me this weekend as I continue to ponder if Elliott Wave is worth anything – – where is Prechter's fund? In other words, if the method has value, it would lead one to assume that the de facto leader and expert of the same method would be running a wildly successful fund. So where is it? I understand this is a silly question, because those selling educational materials, newsletters, and the like can't be in the business of running money. But it seems incongruous to me. After all, if I was the recognized leader in some special trading method that was widely followed around the world, shouldn't I likewise be an incredible rich fund manager? Food for thought.
  • Dogmatism – This weekend, having finished Too Big To Fail, I posted my little review of the book. I was kind of taken aback at the reaction, since I didn't declare every single person in the book to be the anti-Christ. Bovine Stew called it my "worst post ever." Look, I think Goldman is probably the most corrupt organization in the U.S. (and ranks on a top ten list in the world), but a few of the people in the book really were trying their damnedest to do what they thought was right for the country. So excuse me for trying to be a little impartial!

Anyway, today's a total yawner, so I thought I'd just throw a few thoughts out there.