Last March, a comment was posted that I will never forget. It was by a Sloper named Salt who hardly ever posts here – maybe a few times a year – but on March 5th, 2009, he wrote the following………..
The reason the comment made such an impression on me is that it was clear, bold, and long-term. I also remember thinking in the back of my head, "My God, what if he's right?", because I had been making so much money on the short side, and I was really enjoying it. Hearing that the party might be over was a bit of a bummer (even though my October 2008 chicken scratch agreed with his disposition).
Well, as we all know now, he bought at precisely the bottom.
I was very excited to see last night the following post (remember, Salt hardly ever posts a comment, so any time he says anything, he's got my attention………..)
I wrote to Salt to thank him for his contributions to Slope, and I asked him how his other positions worked out. He responded, and he gave me permission to publicly post his reply:
Hello Tim, thanks for writing. First let me say that picking "the day" of the March bottom, or any top or bottom, is only a novelty, anyone could have made big money going long weeks before and days after that day. I did load up on calls, but sold 90% of them at the July top. Even with selling early, they still paid 5X to 15X+. I was sure there would be a short term correction along the way with a 15 to 20% pullback, had there been one I would have reloaded and would be sending my plane to pick you up. Unfortunately, chasing a nonexistent correction cost me about half of my previous profits. As I have mentioned, most of my account is handled more conservatively and is up about 3X. As sure as I was with that earlier call, I am now almost as sure that we are entering a whipsaw bear market that will last at least 18 months and end with the S&P under 500. This will include gold and related mining stocks. I will post here "near" the next bottom, this next bear market rally is where I think gold will really shine.
I want to again thank Salt for being part of Slope, and I welcome him back – with open paws – to the bear camp.