Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Salmon Posing as Bulls

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On February 5th, at 2:00 p.m. EST, the market bottomed, and the bulls have been running with the baton ever since. The Dow has climbed nearly 500 points since then, and today was the winning-est day for the bulls yet.

One graph that nicely captures what I believe is (a) a core break in the uptrend (b) the swift fall (c) the subsequent retracement, is DBB, shown below.This is a metals fund, but it neatly outlines what I think the story has been over the past few weeks. I am dubious that such a chart could push above its broken trendline anytime soon.

0216-ENDDBB

Although we're only talking about 19 trading days, there has been a mountain of drama packed within that short timespan. The Dow, shown below, illustrates (a) the countertrend peak (b) the swift plunge (c) the brief pause (d) the continuation of the plunge, reaching its nadir on the 5th (e) the latest launch higher, which we're in the midst of right now. I personally would be a lot more comfortable as long as we don't penetrate the levels seem on February 2nd.

0216-ENDDOW

The Russell 2000 also illustrates this well, although its recent rally has been more explosive. We are almost back at the "line in the sand" which, when breached before, set off the rapid slide which most of us were enjoying so much. It seems so long ago, and yet it was just six trading sessions past.

0216-ENDRUT

I have made no secret of my interest in shorting precious metals at the right levels. I have no position in gold now, but I did short GDX and SLV today. Provided SLV stays beneath 16.48, I am optimistic about the potential for this trade. Below is the Gold Bugs Index.

0216-ENDHUI

Lastly, DXD (the ultra-bear ETF on the Dow 30) has painted a nice pattern – – having pushed cleanly over its former resistance level, and subsequently having retraced back to it. I bought this late in the session today.

0216-ENDDXD

Since I'm on vacation (ha!) this week, I'd love my guest authors to make a point of doing some posts and give me a bit of relief. Thanks, and good night!

Concrete – Economic Indicator? (by Biffermas)

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Concrete names in general are reflecting a pretty unspectacular sector.  The company with the highest market cap is CRH, which is already down 16% in 2010.  Without a firming in this sector it's hard to imagine a glowing general economic outlook going forward, since concrete is quite literally the foundation of all building activity.

A little anecdotal observation shows the topping pattern of concrete companies 2-5 months before a commensurate top in the SPX (either that or my head is full of the stuff).

Topping_comparison

Topping comparison 2 

A Handful of Shorts and Stops

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Even though the bulls have been running the market for about the past ten days, there are still intriguing short opportunities. Below are some symbols I'm shorting along with their stop loss levels.

AGN………..60.86

AIN    ………..21.38

ANF………..    36.25

ASX    ………..4.64

BBD    ………..18.04

CDNS………..    6.14

DBB    ………..21.78

DEO    ………..66.52

ENTG………..    5.26

FAX    ………..6.64

KGC………..    20.45

NSC………..    50.68

PCU………..    32.30

UN………..    31.23