Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Weekly Sector Report Expanded for Month (by Leisa)

By -

With this report, I plan to migrate from a table presentation to a graphic presentation. I'm leading with the monthly change as we just closed a month. I have colored the total stock market index in blue so you can see that as an easy comparative. I hope you like this new format. Click on the image to make it larger.

image

You can find the detailed report here. It includes all 164 DJ Sectors, the weekly, daily and monthly charts. 


Fujisan in her post today highlights the copper. I'll use that as a springboard to include a sector spotlight chart on the Dow Jones US Industrial Metals Index. If you desire to do a quick view of this sector, you can visit FINVIZ

Industrial metals

I want to point out something important about this chart.  That is that this sector bottomed before most of the other sectors. Russell Napier in his Anatomy of a Bear1  noted that one key to finding a bottom is noting that copper and durable goods orders are two important leading indicators.  I will remind you to from my previous post, that this sector is one of the last top in the last down draft.  Watch this sector interplay.

1 I highly recommend your reading this book.  It will give you great empirical information regarding shared qualities–both quantitative (prices) and qualitative (news flow)  of bear markets. Some of the widely held conventional wisdom are dispatched with impunity. 

Commodity Play (by Fujisan)

By -

While the general market has been going through the consolidation phase, I am seeing many metals and commodity stocks breaking up this week, and one of the good examples is the copper.

When I saw the copper breaking out, I went long other metals and miners expecting the similar price action.  Copper is also known to be a good economic indicator.  This pattern is very similar to AMZN breakout.

Copper Daily

Copper

AMZN Weekly (for comp purpose)

AMZN_weekly

FCX Daily

Fcx 
Silver Daily

Silver closed above the previous high on Thursday.  No volume confirmation due to the pre-holiday trading.  Need a follow through on Monday for a=c pattern confirmation.

Silver_2 
Crude Oil Daily

Crude oil closed above the previous high on Thursday.  No volume confirmation due to the pre-holiday trading.  Need a follow through on Monday for a=c pattern confirmation (needless to say, it needs to clear the trendline first).

Oil

GDX Daily = Possible Gartley pattern formation

Although GDX is going through a lousy consolidation, GDX is possibly forming a bearish Gartley pattern.  Waiting for the confirmation to close above the previous swing high.

Gdx

Gold Daily

Gold is going through the consolidation with a possible IH&S pattern (it's not clean).  Waiting for the confirmation to close above the previous swing high for a=c pattern.

Gc

FXI Daily

Fxi

EEM Daily

Eem 

EUR/USD Daily

EUR/USD did not follow through to the downside and came back up to the "rectangular pattern" trading range.  I came up with two different scenarios for this pair – Gartley or IH&S patterns.

This pair is going to be the key for the commodity play next week.  If the Fed decided to increase the discount rate and the EUR/USD pair resumes to the downside, then, all of the above charts could just be a "fake out", so I will be watching this pair very closely next week.

Eur_daily

EUR/USD 4 hour chart – possible IH&S pattern if the current uptrend channel holds.

EUR_IHS
 
EUR/USD 4 hour chart – possible Gartley pattern formation if the uptrend channel is being broken.

Eur 
ES Futures

Es