Daily Archives: June 26, 2010

It All Lines Up

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During the course of the week, I think I'm just going to create posts as drafts as leave it to Lovely Leisa to keep the rhythm of the blog going at her own chosen pace. Below are my thoughts on what I think lies ahead for the week.

Generally speaking, I am positioned for a modest-to-medium push higher followed by what I'm hoping is Le Grande Tumble. For the rest of June, I'm only going to be in a very small number of positions. I'm currently positioned for such a bounce, being long UNG, RTH, XLU, and FXE. My short on GLD seems a bit incongruous with this disposition, but I've got some my reasons for it.

I've got a bunch of charts below, so I'll just say a few words on each.

On the /ES, I'm looking for a bounce to at least 1103, if not a little higher.

0626-es

A bounce on the EUR/USD might provide more fuel for the equity fire than I am anticipating. I could see the EUR actually getting as high as a little above 1.3.

0626-eur

The gold miners look positioned for what could be a hearty bullish breakout.

0626-gdx

The $INDU's first target would be its 50% retracement level.

0626-indu

Likewise, a modest target for the MidCap 400 would be its Fib Arc. I'm expecting the most strength from the small caps, which I have not charted here.

0626-mid

The NQ's first upside target is shown below.

0626-nq

As I mentioned, I'm long RTH. A push to that long-term trendline could be followed by a very nice fall.

0626-rth

The 50% retracement on the S&P seems like a reasonable retracement target.

0626-spx

Lastly, the XLU, which I'm also long, could push to its descending line of resistance before falling hard toward that longer-term support line.

0626-xlu

The best possible path for my positions would be a push higher, giving me a chance to reload my zillions of shorts at better prices in order to take advantage of a big fall. The worst possible outcome this week would be an immediate hard fall, since I'm not only not in position for it, but since I'm positioned (lightly) for a rise.

I don't intend to get really serious about shorting until July 1 at the earliest, and possibly not until July 6 or later, depending on price action. In the meantime, I am still going through my charts and tucking away those items which look best positioned for a hard fall after a hoped-for increase in price.

While Toshi’s Away……….

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Flowers_use Tim will be away beginning sometime on Saturday.  I will be lending a hand. 
As I will be busy with client commitments next week, my time will be somewhat
limited.  Nevertheless, my goal is to keep the content reasonably fresh and of
the same high quality that Tim's blog clientele expects.

To achieve that objective, I would like to prevail upon the community here to
step forward and help too.  I'm going to be very specific about what I'm going
to ask you to do!  

  • Contribute Content:  We have some talented writers and
    traders here.  Please contribute.  Some ideas are technical indicators that you
    use, good trades that you made (charts, trade reasons, expected exit,
    stops)–and consider noting some bad trades that you've made and what you would
    do differently in hindsight.  Some of you have contributor accounts–please keep them stocked!  For those of you who want to contribute, you can e-mail to me your contributions at leisa-va<at>cox<dot> net.  While I will have limited time during the day to assemble your post, I will do so in a pleasing way to showcase your good work.  Don't be shy about contributing.
  • Shepherd others:  I will use the automatic posting feature
    which I deployed last time.  When a post goes up, at the bottom, I will note the
    time that the next one is to go up.  Be mindful of the time of the next post and shepherd
    others to it.  If one of you could do a "new post" that would be great.  Merely copy
    the the text in the current post that I have up (It will be a 'new post announcement, time of next post and a link) and put it in the comments section.  Friends don't let friends talk to themselves in a stale post comments section.  Be a friend.
  • Slope Wiki ideas:  Tim made an appeal to put together some slope Wiki. 
    Let's put some creative thought into this!  I have a dead blog on which I created a
    page for you to go to and post some ideas.  You can find that here.