Daily Archives: July 15, 2010

USD Breaks Support (by Springheel Jack)

By -

USD broke support and down from the broadening ascending wedge
overnight, which is very bad news indeed for the bear case this summer,
and badly undermines the case for an ES top at 1099 reached in overnight
trading on both of the last two nights.

That's not to say that SPX can't be in a wave down while USD is also in a
wave down, after all SPX was in a wave up from December to April while
USD was also in a wave up, but the best aid for a big move down in
equities this summer would have been a strong wave up in USD taking it
over 90, and that now looks very unlikely to happen. 

mmTesla was saying last night that trendlines should be drawn with
crayon rather than pencil, and that there has to be some allowance for
slight overshoots, and he's right, but as we stand the USD rally is
probably over, and a break below 83 on DX would confirm that for me.

100715_DX_Daily_BA_Wedge

The mirror image wedge on EURUSD has broken resistance. On the break
this wedge has a conservative target of 1.46 and three of the last four
big wedges on EURUSD played out to target:

100715_EURUSD_Daily_BD_Wedge

GBPUSD broke up from the declining channel since last October and the
upper trendline was also declining resistance from July 2008, so that
is a very bullish break indeed:

100715_GBPUSD_Declining_Channel_Broken

Strangely, 30 year treasuries have gone entirely the other way, with a
big move up from support yesterday and a bullish engulfing daily
candlestick. I no longer trust this move though because treasuries are
strongly linked to USD. It is no accident that the big move up in
treasuries this year has coincided with the USD rally:

100715_T30Yr_Daily_Rising_Support_Trendline

On ES there was a move up last night to the previous night's high at
1099 and we seem to be forming a rectangle within the ES rising channel.
Thanks to dreadwin for pointing this out on the SPX 15min chart
yesterday and it has since also appeared on ES. Rectangles break upwards
68% of the time and the target for this one is 1113.5 ES.

While forming this rectangle after hitting the top of the rising channel
at 1099, ES has moved below the centre line of the rising channel for
the first time since passing 1040. I am now expecting a hit of the lower
trendline of the channel before the rectangle is broken, and that would
most likely be tomorrow near 1085. Until the lower trendline of the
channel is hit, I'm expecting 1099 to be solid resistance and 1084.5 to
be solid support.

100715_ES_60min_Rising_Channel_and_Rectangle