Daily Archives: August 6, 2010

Phew.

By -

I sleep in a really comfortable bed, but it might as well have been made of pins and needles last night, since I was so concerned about this morning's jobs report. You probably already know the result:

0806-jobs

The cool part is that the jobs report wasn't even that horrible. It was on the lowish end of estimates, yes, but the actual figures were only a tiny bit worse than the consensus. As I'm typing this, the market is jiggling around between negative 8 and negative 10 on the /ES.

If I were a bull (hint: I'm not), I would be getting pretty frustrated at this point. There are two technical barriers working right now:

+ For bears, there is the ascending trendline dating back to July 6th. If we can break it decisively, the ball is ours;

+ For bulls, there is the IHS pattern dating back from May 18th. If that can be broken decisively, a run to 1170 looks almost easy. 

The bulls had an excellent opportunity to push through the neckline with the jobs report, but it didn't do what they wanted it to do. If the bears can put together a hearty down day today (at least triple digits down on the Dow), that will be very constructive to things turning downward again.

I am currently 135.24% short, with 220 positions. Thus, the pins and needles.

Good luck today.