Daily Archives: August 13, 2010

No Real Target Hits Yet (by Springheel Jack)

By -

I've read that after a trend day it's normal to see two to five days of
retracement unless the market is really trending strongly. ES closed up
from the low yesterday but SPX was down on the day and the opening gap
wasn't quite filled though it came very close, as was the case on
Tuesday as well. We've now had three days of unfilled down gaps and a
failure to rally after a trend day on Wednesday. That looks very weak.

Of the main retracement targets that I listed on Tuesday, nothing has
yet hit target though GBPUSD is now very close, and if SPX opens  in the
1072 area then it will have hit the lower trendline of the possible
rising channel. Here's the SPX daily chart:


Here's the GBPUSD daily chart, where we may now be seeing a technical hit, though I'd like to see it go a little lower:


As for the others I posted EURUSD is well short, oil has come close and
is only 80c short of the 75.15 target as I write. Copper and AUDUSD are
both still well short.

Looking through my indicator charts the Vix has met target if this is just a correction:

100813 Vix Daily Falling Wedge

The gold/silver ratio chart that I used to call the recent top is well
short of where I would expect to see it on a real low here though:


The SPX:Vix chart is also well short of where I would expect to see it:


I said on Tuesday that I was expecting to see the low for this move on
Monday to Wednesday next week, and I'm still leaning towards that at the
moment, as my downside targets have not been hit and and I'm not seeing
much to suggest a bottom here yet.