Daily Archives: September 8, 2010

Last Call for Slope-Fest East (by Leisa)

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In May, I had the pleasure of having at least 5 male Slopers in my room. Thankfully, my husband has an open mind.  I have listened to Market Sniper's wonderful stories first hand–what a pleasure! I've been graced with the company of charming Doolie, our clever Biffermas, our wonderful Vittorio, our inimitable Gilledain. I've dined in the company of Gary S who really can squash dear Toshi like a grape (as well as the rest of us).  Beautiful and skillful Wing and Fergie who bring a new spin to grace (and beauty) under market fire.  KC and Baby Dragon, who stay in the background here, but are vibrant, interesting and charming men. And Toshi….(sigh……)

Tim's blog was recommended to me by a dear on-line friend, Nona.  Over these last 5 years, I've been an on again, off again blogger and recently contributor.  I consider it a privilege to participate in this blog as both.  I know that Tim's blog is something that is precious to him. And if you do not feel his commitment to this community and the honesty in which he writes, then you've not been listening closely.

Slope-Fest East was a spark ignited from the first Slopefest in Las Vegas.  Iggy has been a galvanizing force in initiating the second gathering in Myrtle Beach.  He, too, does this from his great commitment to this community.  While he was not in Las Vegas, he was the very first Sloper that I met, and I consider him a dear friend.

Already there are 33 folks attending, but there is room for more. I'm writing this post to encourage you to join your on-line compatriots.  My 22 year old daughter asked me prior to Las Vegas, "Mom, don't you think that it is a little risky to be meeting people on-line?"  The answer was simply, "No.  I know these people's names, and they are all indictable."  While that was the practical answer as a parent, the real answer was simply, "These people are my friends."

If there are any of you out there that have a niggle of an inner prod, that says, "Wouldn't it be fun to go to SlopeFest, East?"  I'm writing to support that niggle. We are a community here.  We laugh and we cry together, and we get pissed offed from time to time.  We do not share the same economic, social or political views, but we do share the desire to understand market dynamics and persevere in the face of those dynamics.

If you are on the fence and a couple of days in Myrtle Beach is within your time and dollar budget, then I encourage you to visit and be with "us".  You will find this group warm and welcoming, thoughtful, respectful, and all of the other superlatives that you would want to mention.  Most importantly, there will be no force feeding of bacon. That is where I draw the line.

Our time together is a chance to celebrate our community–a mosaic of perspectives and personalities that make life interesting and challenge each of us to consider our own points of view.  Our lives are not about what we make, what we drive or where we live..  Rather, our lives are about the connections we make with others–the difference we make in the lives of others by sharing our wisdom, laughter and friendship. Consider, then, making a connection with fellow Slopers.

You can read about SlopeFest East here .

 

Lloyd at lunch

Biffermas, Giledain, me, Toshi, Market Sniper, Vittorio, and our beloved Lloyd, on whose behalf we toil and grind.

Three Scenarios

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Recent events have compelled me to have a more open mind about various market possibilities. I present to you three different ideas about where the market could take us for balance of this month.

Scenario One: At Long Last

This is my favorite, naturally, since it pushes down to the target I've been positioning myself for; it takes us to about 925 before reversing and, for the balance of 2010, the market would pretty much head higher.

0908-possible1
Scenario Two: Bullish Breakthrough

Here we have the market breaking the 1130 level and fulfilling its target of nearly 1250, surpassing April's high price. At this point, I think every bear in the world would be dead.

0908-possible2
Scenario Three: Bullish Fake-Out (AKA Tick Everyone Off)

If you believe the market exists to fool as many people as possible, this is the scenario for you. It would push the market above 1130, get everyone buying like mad, and then flip around and create losses for all parties.

0908-possible3

The maddening thing, of course, is that if we crossed 1130, there's no telling if Scenario Two or Three is at play. Strength at this point would be the worst of possible worlds for bears, because it not only results in losses for existing shorts, but for bears that finally jump into the bullish camp, they are at-risk of losing there as well, should the market finally do what they've long wanted to head lower.

My opinion as to which is the most likely? I have none.

Shanghai Move Could Spur SPX (by Mike Paulenoff)

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The Shanghai Composite remains in "spring position" ahead of a potential upside breakout from its May-September base pattern. Let's notice that the recent price action of both the SH COMP and the S&P 500 is starting to look similar — that is, a rally at the end of August into early September followed by a sideways, bullish consolidation area that should resolve itself to the upside in a thrust towards a test of the 200 DMA (2763) in the SH COMP and a confrontation with the June-Aug. highs (1129/31) in the SPX.

Still, from my technical perspective, the China Index is leading the SPX. If the SH COMP hurdles and sustains above 2705, then it should begin to fulfill the upside potential off of its May-Sept. base pattern — at 2930/80 — which should provide support for upside continuation in the SPX as well.

DTjdenHoS
Originally published on MPTrader.com.

Eurollover?

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Watching the EUR/USD is interesting right now. Take a look at this chart:

0908-eur

What I see is:

(a) a break of a major ascending trendline, circled in red;

(b) an attempt at retracing to the broken trendline, circled in green;

(c) a failure of the horizontal line, highlighted in yellow, and a current attempt to retrace to that line

If the EUR doesn't make it past that horizontal line, and starts falling away, odds seem favorable for further weakness.