August, Die She Must

By -

April come she will
When streams are ripe and swelled with rain
May she will stay
Resting in my arms again
June she'll change her tune
In restless walks she'll prowl the night
July she will fly
And give no warning to her flight
August die she must
The autumn winds blow chilly and cold
September I remember
A love once new has now grown old

Well, August is behind us, and in spite of the 14% rise in equities that the Federal Reserve has inconsiderately crammed down our throats over the past 7 trading days, I still end with the best month in a year. Thank you, Dr. Bernanke, for your munificence is allowing me to keep some of my hard-earned profits. You're a real mensch. Shalom, baby.

The market panic has, once again, instantly disappeared, and the bulls have stars in their eyes again. They are a resilient bunch, aren't they? The VIX has tumbled from nearly 50 to nearly 30.

0831-vix

Yes, the Russell 2000 might have some life left in it, that is true. That is why I am shorting selective stocks, as opposed to ETFs. All the same, the topping pattern in all the indexes is a doozy.

0831-russell

I've been saying over and over and over again that 1250 was the magic target. We are almost there. I don't know if it'll get that high, or even overshoot it a bit, but given the almost uninterrupted rally for the final three-quarters of August, the risk/reward is definitely back to favoring the bears, in my ursine opinion.

0831-es

I entered the day with a split between longs and shorts, but I took profits on the longs and am entirely short once again. My commitment level is 63%, since I am willing to give the market a little more room to run. Thursday we've got the big ISM report, and Friday, of course, the employment "situation", from the standpoint of our friends in D.C.

That's it from me today, I think. Be strong, brethren. Risk is our business.

Share this post: