About an hour ago, I made a big decision – – to go ahead and cover all my positions for at least the next few days.
This is something I hardly ever, ever do. But there are a couple of realities:
(1) Until the FOMC announcement on Wednesday, there is way too much uncertainty about what Bernanke is going to say. Will it send the market up 500 points? Down 500 points? Nobody knows. I have worked too hard for my profits this quarter to put them up against that kind of uncertainty and risk. I may miss profits on the move, but I'd rather have a sure thing.
(2) This entire Euro/Greek thing is becoming a daily struggle with insanity. At any given moment, if a central banker picks up a telephone, it can send the market flying in either direction. It certainly appears that every morning's big drop is swiftly erased. I'm already glad that I covered my shorts, as I glance at the screen and see the ES is nearly 20 points off its low already.
The quarter ends next Friday. I intend to keep things very, very calm until then, which means either totally in cash or, occasionally, relatively small day-trades.
I may elect to re-enter positions after FOMC, but I'm inclined to wait a little while after the initial spasm before doing so. Today was profitable, the month was profitable, and the quarter was profitable, and I intend to keep it all in this manner.
Bottom line – – my blood pressure is going to be really placid for the forseeable future!