Held captive by the low volume holiday week, gold sector investors look as if they will get dunked again upon the US market open today. There are a few different potential scenarios in play with regard to the gold stocks, but gold itself has been pretty clear since the momentum-fueled 'channel buster up' last summer.
Gold never, ever sustains moves like that. You can call it some evil cabal manipulating the POG or you can chalk it up to well coordinated intervention on the part of global central banks. But the reality is that people panicked into gold in knee jerk fashion in response to media hype as the European Union threatened to fall apart. What, is Europe all fixed now? Or did gold get ridiculously over bought – touted by the most perma-bull gold bugs every step of the way – as it became sponsored, en mass by dumb, emotional money on a grand scale? I'll take B, Alex.
Sentiment is becoming wrist slittingly depressive even among many die hard gold bugs. But it helps to remember that in the markets, especially those negatively managed by powerful authorities, equal and opposite REactions often come about in response to certain actions; like say, a world full of panicked financial refugees plowing into a would-be golden financial idol for a brief and shining moment last summer.
Nouriel Roubini (and his gold bug taunting on Twitter) is a figurative circus clown, a side show. Dennis Gartman speaks from on high and looks to have made a good call. These are the media stars. Really though, anyone with eyes should have seen gold's fate as far back as late summer. My target (in Sept.) was low-mid 1600's to 1550. Now, a potential (nothing is a given in these markets) new one is projected to around 1450. The superstars can have the dynamic headlines, but the name of the game is to have game plans open and subject to refinement – at ALL times.
The current game plan has now opened up Au 1450. This seems bearish, but for someone who has been aboard this bull since 2002, it is a yawner. When things get really bullish – and I am talking about quality gold mining stocks more than gold (the simple monetary 'value' barometer) the question will be 'who is available to capitalize?'
I guess what this post is trying to say is that in the precious metals especially, following the leaders (and their 24/7 bull horns) and going with the herd is deadly because it can leave one without opportunity capital. In the precious metals when the real opportunties come, they come in dynamic fashion and they come with a heaping dose of pain.