An Apple a Day Keeps the Bears Away

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Or whatever.  The stock market keeps grinding higher and everyone hates this market. The bears hate it because it is grinding them to dust. Bulls hate it because they are under invested and would like to go back and invest more. Brokers hate it because there is no action. We are all calling a top for months now and yet nobody has seen a top.

Now that DOW has closed over 13000 and SPX over 1370, do we throw away all the rules of TA, cycle analysis and just believe in the powers of Central Bankers? Buy the F**king dip?  I am no bear and I have no problem joining the buy program only if I could convince myself that this time is different. That all the divergences do not matter!  That this time is truly different!  The path of least resistance is up-ward. So the next we hear is DOW 13500 and SPX 1400.

Look at the 5 min. chart of SPX.

Spx
In the normal course I would have said it is a double top. But now I don’t know what to say.

The summation index (NYSI) is turning down and in the past it has been followed by market corrections.

NYSI(Source: Ciovacco Capital)

Will it be different this time?

J Wagner of FXCM has the following chart;

JWagner
Mr. Wagner thinks AUD has some juice left.

Look at the weekly chart of AUD.

AUD
I am thinking that AUD is at the top of the range and not much room to run.

If we have to guess the Top based on TA, then there is no better person to guess than our good friend Cobra.

SPX target by cobra

As per his measured move target, SPX can go up-to 1376.

In the mean time, the trend table continues to be long.

Trend Following
Do not front run unless you know what you are doing. Market is smarter than all of us. Too many of us are calling for the top and reversal and it will come when we least expect it. While we wait for the market to show us the next bend, here are some interesting reads:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9112155/Irish-EU-treaty-vote-threatens-chaos.html

http://dynamichedge.com/2012/02/27/very-late-longs-or-blown-up-shorts/

http://www.frankvoisin.com/2012/02/28/grantham-10-investment-lessons/

http://www.marketanthropology.com/2012/02/where-wild-things-are.html

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