Now that the Greek PSI nonsense is behind us (rolls eyes), the event-of-events is the jobs report Friday morning. Even if I knew precisely what the data was going to be, I wouldn't know what to do with it. A blowout huge jobs report could, on the one hand, cause the market to soar because of the recovering economy and could, just as easily, crash the market since it would make the prospect for QE3 even more remote. Or we could see both reactions within the first fifteen minutes of the report's release.
I intended to share an event split of bullish and bearish index charts, but I had a lot easier time finding bearish ones (imagine that!) Let's start off with some bullish arguments.
First up in the NASDAQ composite, which has done a yeoman's job staying above its breakout level of about 2890. Even during Tuesday's plunge, the index didn't even come close to threatening to pushing below that level. The breakout implies a rise to over 3,100.
Pardon me for saying that. But I have been writing for the last few days not to short the market and that whipsaw is expected. I wrote that such a strong up-trend will not turn on a dime and it will re-test the highs. So it did yesterday and today. I think it will make one last effort to break the 1378 mark and then roll over. For the bears, the good news is the previous high has not been broken and we are on track for 1-2-3 trend change. By the way, the cycle high was between March 6-9. So tomorrow may be the ultimate fade date.
I'm not the sharpest knife in the drawer, but allow me to offer the following parable:
Let's say you loaned a friend of yours $10,000. Time went by, and life wasn't going that well for your friend. He lost his job, had bills to pay – – you know the schtick.
On Tuesday – marvelous Tuesday – I did this post which speculated that the Russell would fight its way back to as high as 810 or so. We've completed the first step, closing the gap. I'm not sure if the index will complete the journey to 810 or weaken here, but I have augmented my existing shorts with some new positions at present levels. I remain only 65% committed and have a long on XME as a hedge.
[GATA, for those Slopers who may not already know stands for Gold Anti-Trust Action Commitee, AKA a Tin Foil Hat factory –GT]
I received something yesterday by way of a friend, from GATA, talking about "frustrated precious metals investors" and "bankster ambushes on the gold and silver markets". The article talks about market participants' "sense of hopelessness" about change with regard to the "Western financial crime syndicate" and the "Empire of the Wall Street Vampires".
I then stopped reading.