Well, my fellow Slope-a-Dopes, it appears the market Gods were with me on Friday, much to the chagrin of many of you I'm sure. We did indeed breach 1369 on the S&P index, leaving me firmly entrenched on the SOH to fight another day. You tedious momos didn't really think you could rid yourselves of this engaging macro savant so easily, did you?
We did a post in March saying there was a timing high coming into the market. The count wave 233 bars high to high and 161 bars from low to high. Both 233 and 161 are important Fib Numbers.
The market came down off the high but nothing like what should occur from a major timing high. In reality we are just still sitting at the same high. The market tried to break higher but could not. So on one had it is showing strength by not just crashing off the high but it is not showing real strength because we have not broke the timing high.
The only thing to do is go down time frames from the Weekly chart and wait for a true break of a bullish pattern which we have not had as of the close of Friday. From the high of last week the pullback is exact symmetry support so as of the close the market is still bullish on all time frames but that could change if we break down next week.
I am not saying if we take out last weeks low I am bearish because there is still Daily support around the 2590 – 2550 on the NQ which is still a buy zone on the Daily chart. At levels like this the market likes to suck everyone in short to then short squeeze. Maybe the short squeeze does not take out the highs or maybe it does it is still too soon to tell.
I am playing it as the leg down is still counter trend and watch out for a short squeeze.
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Further to my last weekly market update, here is a summary of where money flow ended for Week 1 of May 2012.
The Weekly charts below of YM, ES, NQ & TF show that they reversed last week's bullish setup to close as bearish engulfing candles. They are still range-bound from February. Until we see price break out of this range one way or the other with conviction, we may see an attempt at a bounce on Monday.