Daily Archives: May 29, 2012

Fear the Top of the World

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Last Sunday, May 20, I read that in the span of three days, Mark Zuckerberg: 0529-beast

1. Took his company public, making him one of the richest men in history;

2. Saw his fiancee get her medical degree from UCSF;

3. Married the aforementioned fiance in a surprise wedding ceremony in his back yard, which is located just a few blocks from my own home.

As I read this, I confess I felt a little worried for the guy. But, wait a second, why would I worry about someone blessed with such amazing good fortune? Simple: because of all that amazing good fortune, particularly given its abundance and speed.

I guess it's the contrarian in me that worries that any situation which is so extreme is bound to reverse and at least revert to the mean (this same disposition gives me optimism when things seem awful).

And, even in the one week that has transpired since the trifecta cited above, we have all witnessed Facebook's value plunge by about 35%, and you know as well as I do that a mountain of shareholder lawsuits are bound to follow (particularly since, let's face it, the low price for the stock is probably a long, long way from here).

I seriously wish Zuck well in his marriage and his life, but whenever everything is coming up roses for someone, you should probably worry about what's next. It's sort of the "magazine cover curse" writ large.

Euro-Trashed

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I sold my FXE long position this morning at a tiny, tiny profit. Over the next hour, I entered into it again a couple of times, thinking perhaps I was being hasty, and each time, I exited with a small loss. I finally threw my hands up and decided it was an inadequate hedge.

As I'm typing this, it is falling to pieces, hitting new lows. I'm glad I'm out. It seems a distinct possibility to me that the "bounce" finished on Sunday night, and we're simply continuing down the inevitable path to 1.14 and Euro-destruction.

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