Following up on the Miners Spreadsheet

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On April 27th, I did a video speculating on how high the miners (GDX) would bounce before presenting another good shorting opportunity. In it, I concluded we would bounce to 49.17 before beginning the much larger fall.

Well, we just kept fallling. Indeed, I bought GDX yesterday, only to close it at a loss this morning. A new short position today repaired the damage, and I ended the day buying GDX again (and, with much larger size, GLD).

I decided to recalculate what the bounce would do if today's low was, in fact, the bottom of this leg. And by "leg", my anticipation is that we'll have a 2008-style bounce (tinted below in green) before we tumble hard again. Watch the aforementioned video for more details.

0503-hui

Anyway, here's the updated spreadsheet. The new target (assuming the GDX doesn't crumble again tomorrow!) is 48.34, and I've updated my GDX chart to reflect that target.

0503-spreadsheet

The cool part, for me, is that this new level actually has meaning on the chart. The earlier projection of 49.17 was a very random place for a bounce. It didn't correspond to anything. A level of 48.34, however, would be picture-perfect.

0503-gdx

Tomorrow, of course, is the big jobs number, so it should be a dynamic day. I am currently 70% committed (the other 30% in cash) with 85% in various shorts and 15% in GDX and GLD. Best of luck to Slopers, one and all!

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