On April 27th, I did a video speculating on how high the miners (GDX) would bounce before presenting another good shorting opportunity. In it, I concluded we would bounce to 49.17 before beginning the much larger fall.
Well, we just kept fallling. Indeed, I bought GDX yesterday, only to close it at a loss this morning. A new short position today repaired the damage, and I ended the day buying GDX again (and, with much larger size, GLD).
I decided to recalculate what the bounce would do if today's low was, in fact, the bottom of this leg. And by "leg", my anticipation is that we'll have a 2008-style bounce (tinted below in green) before we tumble hard again. Watch the aforementioned video for more details.
Anyway, here's the updated spreadsheet. The new target (assuming the GDX doesn't crumble again tomorrow!) is 48.34, and I've updated my GDX chart to reflect that target.
The cool part, for me, is that this new level actually has meaning on the chart. The earlier projection of 49.17 was a very random place for a bounce. It didn't correspond to anything. A level of 48.34, however, would be picture-perfect.
Tomorrow, of course, is the big jobs number, so it should be a dynamic day. I am currently 70% committed (the other 30% in cash) with 85% in various shorts and 15% in GDX and GLD. Best of luck to Slopers, one and all!