Monthly Archives: November 2012

“Moneyball” Takes Down Wall Street

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By now I am sure all of you are aware of statistics guru, Nate Silver.

The unabashed numbers geek, professional poker player, baseball statistician and creator of the FiveThirtyEight blog on The New York Times website correctly predicted the outcome of all 50 states. In 2008 he accurately predicted 49 out of 50 states.

There is no doubt that Silver has ushered in a new level of credibility for statistical analysis.

Political journalist Dan Lyons said it best, “his accuracy on this year’s election represents what I call a victory of logic over punditry. Nate Silver was right and the pundits were wrong. And Silver won because of, well, mathematical science. Silver’s methodology is based solely on statistical data. He takes deep data sets and applies logical analytical methods to them.”

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Negative Divergence at Resistance (by Springheel Jack)

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One thing I don't like to see when I'm long is marginal new highs and significantly negative RSI divergence under strong resistance areas, and that's exactly what I'm seeing this morning. I have clear targets at 1433/4 on SPX from the falling wedge and IHS targets on the SPX 60min chart, but there is a real possibility of reversal and retracement right here. 

On the SPX daily chart the primary target is the upper bollinger band in the 1437 area, but there is often failure or short term reversal at an intermediate major moving average, which in this case would be the 50 DMA at 1422. The high yesterday was at 1419.70 which was close enough to qualify as a test of that:

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