Keeping fully in mind that NOBODY knows what happens next as well as the Zurich Major Axiom 4: On Forecasts..Human behavior cannot be predicted. Distrust anyone who claims to know the future, however dimly. Nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Nobody. Never lose sight of the possibility you have made a bad bet….I do recommend that you take a look at ALL the Zurich Axioms at your leisure. They can be found here.
Or in the immortal words the great Yogi Berra: The future ain't what it used to be. That being said, making predictions is so much fun, I cannot resist doing it. I think predicting the future is hard wired into us as a specie. What we CAN do is take a look at probabilities about the future and attempt to come to some idea of what the higher and lower probabilities of what happens next to be. That is what I will attempt to do with this post. These are my views and observations.
Data released today (Monday) shows that Money Supply dipped in
October in China, as shown on the graph below.
"Early in the economic
cycle an increasing supply of money leads to additional spending and investment,
and later in the cycle expanding money supply leads to
inflation." Since it has been in an early cycle since the
beginning of 2012, this latest dip may or may not be a warning of further
weakness to come…one to consider monitoring over the next few months.
Loans also fell for October, as shown on the graph below. "Consumers and
businesses tend to seek credit when they are confident in their future financial
position and feel comfortable spending money." This data is
showing that loan demand has been on the decline since April of this
there has been an expansion of money supply this year, loan demand has been
declining. Unless loan demand picks up and is sustained, how can there
be economic confidence and expansion in China?
I read with sadness several stories this weekend about General Petraeus confessing to cheating on his wife (circled left, seated next to her husband) with his biographer (circled right)
As if the story couldn't get any more tawdry, take note of the title of the book she wrote about him:
As a follow-up to my How Apple Became Japan article, I wanted to offer this headline I read this morning:
So this is just the first in what I expect will be a thousand little cuts that will be lodged against the Apple Bully. (I also found the headline especially amusing, considering my post was about "The Japan That Can Say No")
Apple has become the apotheosis of greed and arrogance, and while the world likes the little gadgets they continue to puke out, the same world is starting to turn against them (as a few of the article's comments, below, attest):
The opening segment of NFTRH 212 did what an unbiased financial
writer probably should not do and discussed politics. Then 24 pages of
straight analysis followed.
Financial writers far and wide are weighing in on the US Presidential
election result and its implications. So jumping into the ring, here
For the third cycle in a row I cast a protest vote. After voting for George Bush in 2000 (actually it was more a vote against
Al Gore) I wrote in Ron Paul in 2004 and 2008. This year I voted for
Gary Johnson, although I do not consider myself a Libertarian. I
consider myself an independent who has long since been alienated from a
two party system that looks a lot like dangerously competitive cartoons
from opposite ends of a narrowly constructed ideological spectrum.
I'll start today by looking at a couple of possible H&S patterns that may currently be playing out. Both are decent and technically valid patterns, though I'm not giving them full weight here because they aren't that well supported by topping patterns on other indices. Nonetheless they are well worth bearing in mind here.