I often liken stock market predictions to weather forecasting. A
meteorologist can tell you what the weather will be like tomorrow with a
very high degree of certainty. However, as the forecast is extended in
time, the accuracy diminishes. Trying to forecast what the weather
will be like anything more than a few weeks out, other than
incorporating the typical seasonal patterns is basically a crap-shoot.
The same holds true when using technical and even fundamental analysis
to forecast future prices in individual stocks or the stock market
although I do believe that the charts, combined with the study of the
business cycle and other macro-economics, do allow us to make
potentially accurate longer-term predictions.
I've taken a short trade in CLNE at $12.88. The stock has a higher level of risk from the stand point of holding it overnight, as it has had the tendency to gap some of late. However, this stock is running slap-dab right intoresistance at around the $13 level as you can see below. My stop is at 13.45 which gives me about 4% for a stop-loss, which is about the max I'm willing to go.
You'll see that a lot of this stock's movement is off of Cramer's pumping of this stock and a few other favorable articles, but once that pump subsides, it should make a nice move lower.
Here's the short setup that I took in CLNE
Below is a favorite song of mine from a favorite group of mine. What, you have something better to do with your time? Oh, like listen to Obama. So sorry. You go do that. The rest of us will be here enjoying cool music without you.
Data released today (Wednesday) shows that Industrial
Production in Europe continues to decline, with this latest month's data sharply
below that presented in July of 2008, as shown on the graph below.
As you can see, after
a minor rebound from the lows in 2009, production has been in decline from March
of 2010…mirroring the pattern leading up to the deeply depressed lows
throughout much of 2009. This is reflective of the unemployment and recessionary conditions currently prevalent
in Europe. The LTRO 1 & 2 cash injections by the ECB have not had a
(lasting) positive impact in this particular segment of Europe's economy.
European markets are currently down at the time of my writing this post.
Index after index is showing the same thing – – – the long-term supporting trendline, anchored to the bottom of March 2009, shows that the completely fake "bull" market of the past four years is being shattered like a pane of untempered glass slammed against the faces of long-only investors the world over.
I am paying a fairly substantial "fear tax" by not being – – as Ms. Broadwell might say – – ALL IN. God knows I'm not in any long positions, but I have kept a meaningful portion in cash based on the overhanging fear that Surprise Number Ninety Seven is going to pop up on our screens at any moment, day or night.
In any event, it certainly seems the market have transformed itself from one that urges us to BTFD to instead STFR. The suspense is terrible. I hope it lasts.