Money Flow for January Week One 2013 (by Strawberry Blonde)

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Further to my last weekly market update, this week's update will look
at:

  • 6 Major Indices
  • 9 Major Sectors
  • VIX
  • Index/Volatility Ratio Charts
  • 30-Year Bonds
  • U.S. $
  • 3 Days/Candle Charts on 7 Major Indices

 
***PLEASE NOTE that I've
had to provide links only to my charts and graphs as my Blogger is not working
properly tonight (Friday)…my apologies for this.

6 Major Indices

As shown on the Weekly charts and 1-Week
percentage gained/lost graphs
below, all six Major
Indices
gained between 4 and 5% on the week.

http://screencast.com/t/xRxwSvHP

http://screencast.com/t/qoE5Oq683

9 Major Sectors


As shown on the Weekly charts and 1-Week
percentage gained/lost graphs
below, all nine Major
Sectors
gained between 3.5% and 5.5% on the week.

http://screencast.com/t/wDvm3nyjoiZE

http://screencast.com/t/XGtlJm1Sa

 

VIX

As shown on the 10-Year Weekly chart below, the
VIX closed the week at 5-Year lows. Whether it pops from this
level, or simply bases for awhile, remains to be seen.

http://screencast.com/t/o6USVfl0N

Index/Volatility Ratio Charts

As shown on the 10-Year Weekly
ratio chart
below of the SPX:VIX, price closed at 2012
highs. The next resistance levels are at 125 and
150, respectively. Assuming this ratio can rally and hold above
today's closing price of 106, we may see further buying in the
SPX Index…to confirm, I'd see if the Momentum indicator
remains above zero on the weekly timeframe.

http://screencast.com/t/sAMMhmMb

As shown on the
10-Year Weekly ratio chart below of the
RUT:RVX, price reached and closed at an all-time high today.
Price on the Russell 2000 Index also reached and closed at an
all-time high today. Assuming this ratio can rally and hold above today's
closing price of 51, we may see further buying in
the RUT Index…to confirm, I'd see if the Momentum indicator
remains above zero on the weekly timeframe.

http://screencast.com/t/lZK8rwg9MEz

As shown on the
10-Year Weekly ratio chart below of the
NDX:VXN, price rallied this week and made a higher swing high.
It's approaching the 2012 highs. Assuming this ratio can rally and hold above
170, we may see further buying in the NDX
Index
…to confirm, I'd see if the Momentum indicator remains above
zero on the weekly timeframe.

http://screencast.com/t/5ssXBw3f

30-Year Bonds

As shown on the 5-Year Weekly chart
below of 30-Year Bonds, price closed just a fraction below
major support on the week, but on lower holiday volumes. I'd look for another
close lower by next Friday on higher volumes before I would assume that selling
has begun in earnest.

http://screencast.com/t/g1pSjpdwgi

U.S. $

As shown on the 5-Year Weekly chart below of
the U.S. $, price closed higher on the week on decent volumes.
It's been bouncing in between the 50 (red) and 200 (pink) MAs for a few weeks
now. I'd look for a break and hold either above the 50 MA or below the 200 MA to
gauge further strength or weakness in the weeks ahead.

http://screencast.com/t/TCTlQVRAlR

3 Days/Candle Charts on 7 Major Indices


Each candle on the
following three charts represents 3 days
. The current candle finished
today and closed higher to confirm either a bullish engulfing or hammer setup on
all seven Major Indices.

You can see that the
Dow 30 and Dow Transports closed right underneath the major
trendline that was broken last year.

http://screencast.com/t/AY8yL4P8Wo5t

The
S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Indices broke above and closed
well above their major trendline.

http://screencast.com/t/VyeEr5FHsdi

The S&P
100 Index
also broke above and closed just above its major up trend
line, as well as a major downtrend line from the 2000 highs…a significant
achievement, particularly if these breaks hold as major support.

http://screencast.com/t/MJGZPu85lW

Summary

In summary, the above charts are ones I'll be watching going
forward over the next few weeks. Using the Index/Volatility ratio
charts
above, I'll be looking for volatility to remain
low, with the Major Indices moving higher and holding above
their major trendlines in order to confirm any further rally that may continue
to run for the next few weeks…at least until the end of February deadline on
the "Fiscal Cliff" and "Debt Ceiling Limit"
issues. Whether we see further selling in 30-Year Bonds and
further buying in the U.S. $ remains to be seen…I'll need to
see a break and hold one way or the other, as noted above. Furthermore, I'll be
monitoring price movement on the Russell 2000 E-Mini Futures
Index
, as I discussed in my post of January 2nd, as well as my "Fed Monetary
Stimulus Program Canaries,"
as I last discussed in my post of December 28th, in order to gauge selling/buying
sentiment.

Enjoy your weekend, and good luck next week! 

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