Well, I'm halfway through my pseudo-vacation, and the markets remain quite interesting in my semi-absence. There are a couple of amazing bear setups that are getting away from me. One of them is bonds, which at long, long last seems to be entering an honest-to-God crumble. The technical damage is getting extreme, and it seems the world is finally waking up to the fact that counting on multi-century lows in interest rates is a dead proposition.
Shorter-term, the Euro has been falling, even in the face of the beyond-retarded ramp-up on the last day of 2012 and first day of 2013. As I'm typing this, late Thursday evening, the Euro is approaching key intermediate-term support.
One bearish setup I have every intention of exploting is the Dow Utility index, by way of the XLU. Below is the $UTIL, which is finishing a terrific top.
Our kook friends are probably hopping mad at this point, since the metals peak two years ago seems like a distant memory. The miners plunged about 4% today, and any more weakness would shatter long-term – I say again, LONG-term – support.
The Dow Composite is modestly violated a couple of trendlines, but today's post-Fed-minutes flop means the bears still have hope.
The NASDAQ, on the other hand, is still safely below broken support.
From a candlestick perspective, the Russell 2000 is sporting a handsome shooting star, implying a top (although one day does not a trend-change make).
Lastly, the S&P 500 is dangerously near its resistance.
Intermediate-term direction is completely dependent on Friday morning's job report. The rally based on the Pussified Congress is well-past, so our dear, pampered bullish friends are going to need a favorable reaction to the monthly jobs report in order to continue their grand charade.