OK, I'll probably regret this, but I am trying once more to take on gold as a hedge; I have gone long, although I will cheerfully bail out (again) if it doesn't firm up. Precious metals have had the holy bejesus kicked out of them, and it seems like it's time for a countertrend rally.
Although I have a new habit of flipping off every gas station I pass, now that my family's vehicle fleet is 100% electric (with the addition of my beautiful new Tesla S), I still take note of the prices, which are once again approaching $5 per gallon.
I suppose this must be the result of California's insane taxes, refinery inefficiencies, and shameless profiteering, because crude oil isn't exactly soaring. USO, the ETF for oil, is a tough chart to read, but it looks increasingly vulnerable to much greater weakness.
Hecla Mining (symbol HL) has been one of my favorite shorts in a sector I've been bearish on for ages – gold miners. Of course, I've managed to antagonize the "gold is going to $5,000/ounce" crowd (sort of like the Apple is going to $1,000/share crowd) by repeatedly pointing to how miners are completely doomed, and I continue to stand by this disposition.
In any event, Hecla is down about 13% just in the first hour of trading today, and I wouldn't fall over dead of shock if this stock was trading under a buck within the next couple of years.
The overnight decline on ES didn't follow through on Friday and I'm in two minds about further downside this week, though there is a decent setup for considerable further downside on a conviction break below 1485. ES is forming a triangle at the moment and we'll see which way that breaks. Even if the retracement low is in however, there is still a decent argument for that low to be tested. It won't be long before rising support from the November low will reach the 1485 level, and at the least I would like to see that trendline confirmed with a third touch: