At the risk of seeming like I'm putting together another post that is merely grasping at a straw – any straw – to prove the market is going to turn down Real Soon Now, I offer the following:
Bonds, as measured by TLT, have been doing a pretty good job bouncing off the Fibonacci fans I've drawn. The last time they bounced twice off a supporting line, they turned around and rallied heartily. We are, I submit to you, ladies and gentlemen, completeing a similar double bottom right now.
If bonds do zoom higher (and I'm well aware as to how many bond bears that are, and how convincing their narrative is……….), equities will likely turn down. The last time we bounced off such a double bottom is highlighted below in green. As always, only time will tell.
SPX is still close to a test of the 2000 high at 1553. I'm not expecting this to hold long though we could see some retracement there. Meantime the current setup couldn't really be much simpler. On ES the 50 hour moving average is clear support and every small retracement since the break up over 1530 has bottomed there. Until this changes there's really nothing happening on the bear side here: