Tonight’s post is going to be exceptionally short, because I am exceptionally busy.
I will note that I have recently been uncharacteristically courageous and confident with respect to the market. It is not because the market has been collapsing before our eyes; on the contrary, many indexes have been vaulting to lifetime highs on pretty much an every-other-day basis.
However, for a variety of reasons – – some known, others confidential – – I have a firm belief that the song and dance from Bernanke & Company shouldn’t turn me off shorting. I have been getting increasingly aggressive, and as I type this, I am nearly 100% committed (94%, to be precise) with 90 different positions.
I offer the chart below of the NASDAQ Composite, which I believe may be heading for a 10% drop over the next two months. This may seen an insane conjecture in this “Bernanke/Yellen Put” environment, but reality be damned, I think this is the most likely path ahead.
I will not continue with my evening, and I’ll see you here in the morning. Pray for rain.
Anyone living with me for a long time probably would either (a) go nuts; or (b) decide to become professionally-qualified to help people who are going nuts. My beloved wife,. whom I have known since the dawn of time, is in the second category.
As such, in the final throes of earning her psychology PhD, she works at a local organization called CHAC(Community Health Awareness Ccouncil). CHAC had the good fortune to have a $3 million+ building gifted to them by a family that recognizes the good work they do for the mental health of the community, particularly young people, but they are trying to raise about $187,000 to make needed improvements to the building to make it ready to use. (more…)
It’s good to see precious metals get up off the mat. Miners in particular are showing strength. I think this could continue for a while longer, but over the coming months, just to be crystal clear, I think they are in for what we in the technical analysis community call ButtHurt.
As most of you know, I tend to have a large number of small short positions – as of this morning, 70, but as of now, 69 – and it is the elimination of one of those by way of a stop-loss order I want to mention herein.
Things were sailing along smoothly this morning, when all of a sudden, I saw a very, very large loss on one of my positions. It appeared from out of the clear blue sky, and my first thought was that I must have been short some stock which was being taken over, and they had only commenced trading very late in the day. The stock was BMC Software (symbol BMC).
The decision on Cyprus has been delayed until Monday and may be delayed further. The principle that depositors’ money has to be appropriated seems to be off the table and Cyprus is looking hard for a viable alternative. Cyprus may well not be a market mover over the next few weeks if an alternative solution can be found.