The following 60 min (market hours only) charts of the YM, ES, NQ & TF illustrate the reactions to this week’s unsettled (so far) banking crisis/bailout battle between the EU and Cyprus.
There is lots of indecision in these markets as they react to the ongoing saga in Europe’s fragmented banking, political, and economic systems (on which the Troika is attempting to get a firm grip by implementing ‘unusual’ and what will become precedent-setting methods, as the irrefutable Law of Attraction dictates).
Those who fail to learn from history’s mistakes are bound to repeat them. Its an age old saying, yet every new mania in the markets screams how this time its different. Financial markets are actually very boring from a historical perspective. The same thing happens over and over again. So here we are, at the end of Quarter One 2013 pressing on new highs, yet it seems the market has forgotten all about what happened a long long long time ago. And by that I mean, exactly one year ago. (more…)
Hi SoH… geek alert!
As the Cyprus drama and other macro events play out and distort normal macro economic signals to varying degrees in the short-term, let’s review the ‘real price’ of counter-cyclical gold vs. the cyclical industrial metals:
Au-GYX Ratio, daily chart
This morning we’re looking at very much the same setup as we were yesterday morning, only we have moved to the other side of the looking glass. Yesterday morning we had an active ES 15min RSI sell signal and were sitting three points above the ES 50 hour MA at 1546, and this morning we have an active ES 15min RSI buy signal, and at the time of writing are sitting 2.5 points below the ES 50 hour MA at 1545. I posted an intraday ES 15min chart on twitter yesterday with a channel support target and you can see that ES reversed there with a slight pinocchio. On a break above the 50 HMA at 1545 the target is channel resistance near the current ES high, and that would now be a strong double-top candidate. If we see short term channel support break then main support is in the 1530 area, and on a break below there the double-top target would be in the 1500 area: