ES broke up with confidence yesterday morning. Overnight ES has made a marginal new high on strongly negative 60min RSI divergence, so some retracement soon looks likely. Strong support levels in the 1530 and 1520 areas and this would be a dip to buy:
Rising channel resistance on the 60min chart rising channel is in the 1560 area. This is also the area for the weekly upper bollinger band so that is a strong target area:
SPX closed above the daily upper bollinger band so I would expect SPX to slow down a bit here. That’s in the context of course of this resistance level moving up 4 or 5 points per day in a strong uptrend. Still, we should see more two way action now:
The main chart today is the SPX weekly 16 year chart, where I’ve been looking at established resistance levels. These are important because all of the four significant highs since the 2009 low have been at established resistance levels, as you can see on the chart below. There are only two of these remaining before SPX hits virgin territory and they are at the 2000 high at 1553 and the 2007 high at 1576. I’m not optimistic about a big reversal near 1553, but 1576 has a real shot at a significant reversal there. You’ll note from the chart that the first high of the 2007 double-top was at the 2000 high:
DX is trading sideways. The daily negative RSI divergence is suggesting consolidation or retracement here. Strong support in the 81.5 area and the main target for the overall move is still a test of the 2012 highs over 84:
CL broke over declining and falling wedge resistance yesterday. At the least I expect a strong rally and this may well be the start of a new uptrend to take CL over the last highs:
There’s no sign of it yet but I’m expecting to see some retracement on ES today within this overall strong uptrend. That will be a dip to buy and if we see it I’ll be looking for it to bottom out somewhere in the 1524 to 1534 area. I have trendline resistance now in the 1547 area, and the 2000 high is not far above that of course.
