Daily Archives: April 25, 2013

Tread Lightly

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After my insane but quite-correct call to gobble up miners back on the 17th, it would be tempting to think the miners are going to be as great a long as they were a short. I’m skeptical. Some symbols look like they could be in for a nice run higher, but a few of them look terribly vulnerable. One that springs to mind is Hecla, shown below, which seems to be approaching the neckline of a gloriously well-formed head and shoulders pattern.

0425-hl

ES Breaks Back Over 1580

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There are a lot of nice looking H&S patterns forming across the US equity indices, including on SPX, but one thing that has made me doubtful about the H&S on SPX particularly continuing to form is the confident break above the daily middle bollinger band on Tuesday. Usually, though not always, a break like this will deliver a test of the upper bollinger band if there is not a major moving average (50, 100 or 200 DMA) on the way, which in this case there isn’t. That upper bollinger band is now at 1593.50, and I’d generally count anything within six points or so of that as a hit, so we may well see that target area made today. Here’s how that looks on the SPX daily chart:

130425 SPX Daily Trendlines BBs MAs

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