OK, my computer woes got solved in 4 minutes instead of the promised 4 hours, so I’m back in business.
Anyway, a quick glance at the Russell 2000 says one thing to me: anyone buying small caps at these levels is smoking dope. There are some superb firms out there, I know (like those which rhyme with “Messla”) but valuations are very, very rich at these levels.
I imagine this is going to go down in the same book that Michael Dell’s “Apple should just shut down and give the cash back to the shareholders” statement made when AAPL was seven bucks a share.
Back on January 31, as well as the month prior, I called your attention to LivePerson’s head and shoulders pattern. The stock did go a little higher, ultimately peaking at around $15, but it starting losing ground again, and this morning it’s completely blowing up, down one-third. A little patience paid off here.
One thing I was looking for this week was follow-through on SPX to confirm the very bullish break over strong trendline resistance last Friday. Obviously we have been watching that follow-through and confirmation, and this means that we are definitely watching another impulsive move up. Last month’s topping process was just consolidation and the next topping process opportunity will begin when SPX breaks rising trendline support from the November low. There is no strong reason to think that will happen soon. (more…)