Daily Archives: December 27, 2013

Zynga Will Get Zapped

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Just a one-chart music…….along the same lines as my LinkedIn post, it just seems to me that as amazing a year as this has been for social media stocks, Zynga’s performance, relatively speaking, has been pretty sad. It did a decent job filling its gap (represented by the green tint), and my hunch is that it’s just going to languish in the low single digits, with occasional barfage along the way. This company peaked, I’d say, just before it IPO’d.

1227-ZNGA

Stock Market Bubbles 1982–2013

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Sent in from thoughtful Sloper Permabear…..

1982 – 1987
August 9, 1982 SPX 102.02
August 25, 1987 SPX 337.90
1,276 trading days, 24.4% annualized return.
October 20, 1987 SPX 216.46
39 trading days, 35.9% Correction

1987 – 2000
October 20, 1987 SPX 216.46
March 24, 2000 SPX 1553.21
3,141 trading days, 15.69% annualized return
October 10, 2002 SPX 768.63
638 trading days, 50.5% Correction

2002 – 2007
October 10, 2002 SPX 768.63
October 11, 2007 SPX 1575.83
1,259 trading days, 14.26% annualized return
March 9, 2009 SPX 666.79
352 trading days, 57.7% Correction

2009 – 2013
March 9, 2009 SPX 666.79
December 27, 2013 SPX 1844.89
1,212 trading days, 21% annualized return

The trend is your friend, and the long-term trend is for higher highs and larger corrections. In Dirty Harry’s famous words, “Do you feel lucky, today?”

LinkedIn Getting LeftOut

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One of the few advantages for bears in a market like this (besides self-pity and, for masochists, a perverse, persistent pleasure) is it’s easy to smoke out weakness relative to Herculean strength. Look no farther than LinkedIn, represented by the black line below, as compared with Facebook, shown (appropriately) in green. If you consider the raging success of TWTR and FB over the past few months, and compare it to the completely flaccid behavior of LNKD, it’s not easy to divine that the first hint of serious weakness in the social sector will lay waste to Hoffman’s creation.

1227-lnkd

Rut-Roh!

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As some of you may remember, back on December 23rd, for about the first ten minutes of the trading session, every data feed on the planet had the Russell 2000  just plain wrong. The data was totally screwed up. However, since charting companies consider the data feed to be the Word of God, they aren’t inclined to change it. Thus, the likes of big boys like Yahoo Finance and StockCharts still look like this: (more…)

When the Wind Blows

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This move up from the Fed spike up has been an inexorable grind. Due to the way it started there are no really decent trendlines in play here from the last low, and so no real patterns either. In effect we just need this wave up to blow itself out, and the next high and low should start to give some shape to the current overall move. On ES I have a three touch support trendline that may or may not be of much use, but the best signal that the current uptrend has ended will most likely come from a break below the 50 hour MA, currently in the 1829 area. ES 60min chart: (more…)