Monthly Archives: November 2016

Mid-Week Market Sentiment Update

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A quick look across the landscape on OPEC/Oil hype day in the global markets.

Public optimism in oil was already turning up pre-OPEC.  A production cut would get everybody lathered apparently, because rising prices are bullish after all.  I pre-bought our heating oil at cheap prices this winter, so bring it on I guess.  I am neutral on oil but a big surge from this hype could tilt it bearish.  From Sentimentrader.com

crude oil optimism index

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Lost In Translation

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I mentioned last night on twitter that at the end of the day there was an unusual situation where ES was holding the weekly pivot there as solid support, and TF had established the weekly pivot as solid resistance. This is a rarity and can’t last long unless they just chop sideways together.

ES built on that weekly pivot support to make a new all time high this morning. Was that bullish? No, as there is nothing inherently bullish about a high retest. Every double top setup requires one and they aren’t bullish. The thing I was watching was what TF was doing with the weekly pivot there ………ES Dec 60min chart:

161130 AM ES Dec 60min

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The Cartel Victory

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Well, OPEC day is here, and it looks like a deal announcement is at hand. Crude oil is rallying (and energy stocks are strong), so R.I.P. to my energy shorts. I will note, with mild interest, that in spite of this huge news coming out of Vienna, so far crude hasn’t even exceeded the horizontal I drew weeks ago. We’ll see if the actual announcement renders this line moot.

1130-cl