Daily Archives: November 2, 2016

Now is Not the Time to be Getting the Yips

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The time to be getting afraid was when the market ramped and sentiment was pinging to over bullish after the Brexit sentiment reset to over bearish had sprung the rally. Now it is too late to start getting the willies because we have full frontal FOMC and the most disgusting, divisive and plain sad election of my lifetime; a lifetime filled with disgusting electoral choices.

Ooh, the economy is okay and inflation signals are bumping up… the Fed’s gonna raise rates in December! Trump might win and the market is gonna hate that!

Just calm down. If you are part of the herd you are supposed to be anxious now. It’s how markets work. If you are not part of the herd then it’s all good and it’s all in line with current plans. Or as NFTRH 419 noted with respect to the following chart…

The VIX is still tame despite the slow leak down by stocks. That is not bullish. Bullish is when people panic, buy already expensive downside insurance (buying volatility, puts, etc.), things get over bearish… and then they rip the thing the other way.


Weekly Stat Target Finally Reached

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Three months ago or so I called a likely retracement target back in the 2100 area on the punch over the weekly upper band and a few weeks ago I clarified that as requiring a test of 2109 at minimum to satisfy the stat. That target was finally reached yesterday. I suspect that was the longest time taken to reach that target from my past examples.

SPX is not showing positive divergence on any timeframe yet and I doubt that any kind of meaningful low was made yesterday. I have possible flag support in the 2090 area and on a hard break down I’d again be looking at the 38.2% fib retracement target at 2047. SPX daily chart:

161102 SPX Daily