I realize that the year isn’t quite over, but it’s late enough in 2016 to put together a retrospective of favorite “commodity king”, Mr. Dennis Gartman. This is the man, of course, frequently featured on CNBC, even though his daughter Courtney left the network earlier this year.
Although Gartman mostly makes market commentary, he also declared quite plainly in late August that Trump had “no chance” of winning the presidential race.
I did a couple of posts about the man, such as The Gartman Grid, which offers insight into how to interpret the often curious ponderings of DG, as well as a fanciful take at a new Broadway production Gartman The Musical, inspired by a comment left here on Slope.
A more serious (and time-consuming) undertaking was to go through all of the Gartman-specific posts on ZH that called out concrete buy or sell recommendations from Gartman. Now “concrete” is a little tough with a man who peppers his speech with words like “gently” and “slightly” and “very very lightly”, but I’ve tried my best. I can understand his reticence to make the bold declarations that he used to (e.g. “I have never been so bullish of oil”) given the tomato-throwing that often ensues when he’s wrong.
It’s been far too long since we’ve had an MST3K short. Enjoy a different era.
Friday didn’t go as I expected, with the bullish triangle breaking down and backtesting broken triangle support at the close. That was a distinctly bearish setup but the overnight action made it clear that all we have been seeing is since Friday morning is Friday morning’s bullish leaning triangle evolve into a larger bullish leaning triangle. That has broken up at the open today and the normal sequence here would be a backtest back into the triangle, currently in progress, and then the main triangle thrust up with an obvious target at a retest of the all time high, and then after that thrust up completes, not necessarily at that retest, the thrust should be entirely retraced back to the 2257/8 area.
If we should now see a break below triangle support, currently in the 2252 area, then something else is happening, but for now my working assumption is that this triangle scenario will play out over the next day or three. ES Mar 60min chart:
Since early November, stocks have basically marched higher with one “pause” in early December which in hindsight was a fantastic buying opportunity.
Currently, stocks have also “paused” after reaching new, all-time highs just under the Dow 20K level. I believe that this is setting up to be another buying opportunity as bullish conditions in the market persist. Stocks have simply worked off overbought conditions on a short-term timeframe, creating conditions supportive of a further advance.