I guess gold got tired of bitcoin having all the gains, as it busted above its small basing pattern and is resuming its rally (I’ve got small short positions in GDX and GDXJ which I suspect will be stopped out instantly at the open Thursday). I’ve pointed out the gap which I’ve mentioned before as a possible target for gold’s recovery. (I’m typing this about midnight EST).
First published Sun Jan 1 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net: Last weekend (Christmas weekend), I noted that set ups such as we have been seeing in the GDX usually lead to strong rallies which can see a 10% move higher quite quickly. Since then, the GDX ran 19% from its recent lows, with Thursday (Dec 29) alone seeing a 7.5% rise. Yes, these divergent set ups can provide for powerful reversal reactions. But, it does not mean we are out of the woods just yet.
In fact, silver still is quite weak, and gold has not yet convinced me either. Moreover, one does not have to make this very complicated at this point in time when one views the daily chart on the GDX. As many of you, as well as the rest of the market, have been seeing the downtrend channel we have developed in the GDX, we cannot gain escape velocity until we are able to clear that 22.50 region.
I was expecting a retest of the all time high on SPX last week and while SPX came close, we never saw that retest. The setup we are looking at on equity indices here might lead to that retest over the next day or two, but it’s ambiguous and if we see support breaks today then it may go the other way.
On ES there is an OK looking falling megaphone that would be a bull flag on the bigger picture. The next target within the megaphone would be megaphone resistance, currently in the 2268.50 area, and on a break up we would very likely see a retest of the all time high not much higher. ES Mar 60min chart: