This will be a simple, straightforward post: just a look at the Dow Jones Composite with a short-, medium-, and long-term view.
The short-term view reveals something which has been the case for many indexes lately – an entire month – – a whole stinkin’ month – – of going nowhere. You can see the upper and lower bounds of this range, and many indexes (including the Dow 30) look exactly like this. After the Trump victory, the market doesn’t quite know what to do with itself.
Both iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) and SPY (lower chart) are in tenuous technical positions right now.
IWM has violated key support at 134.80/40, but has yet to follow-through to the downside, while SPY is probing, piercing, its Nov support line.
Let’s see if the bears can get any traction to the downside after inflicting initial technical damage.
Originally published on MPTrader.com.
This is obviously a very toppy looking setup on SPX and it’s highly likely that SPX is topping out here in the short term, and very possibly making a major bull market top. In terms of timing, topping processes on SPX tend to be slow and my working assumption has been that SPX would kick around until Inauguration at the end of next week, and at that point the decline would get going. I was planning to describe the decline as the ‘Trump Dump’, but I may reconsider doing that depending on any further alleged revelations about the President-Elect’s personal habits in the interim
SPX may of course not wait that long, as there is a very decent looking double top setup already formed and ready to go to take SPX back to the 2180 area, which might be a good match with rising wedge support by the time it is reached. Rising wedge support is currently in the 2150 area. SPX daily chart:
Lower lows. Lower highs. Steady every day. Keep it coming.
I’m satisfied with gold’s proximity to its gap that I have re-entered my DUST position and a short GLD position. I’ve got tight stops on these, though, and if GLD gets past $115, I’m out. The front month for gold is below, with its gap circled.