The market is stuck – – absolutely stuck in the mud – – for the past month. Range-bound. Contained. Dullsville. In any case, the blog must go on, so here are a few random remarks.
I mentioned yesterday how the big rise in the Euro might find the trendline to be a powerful force of resistance. So far, so good (see arrow):
Another day of bumping round slightly above the daily middle band so far. A retest of the high is really just a few handles away, but much of the last few weeks have been spent watching SPX repeatedly fail to retest the all time high at the time by a few handles. There’s a nice short term setup on ES to deliver the ATH retest but it remains to be seem whether that will be enough to get us there this week. This may just continue to kick around until after the Inauguration.
As and when the high is made, SPX is due a minimum 3.9% retracement from the punch over the weekly upper band a few weeks ago. That should get SPX much of the way back to rising wedge support, currently in the 2155 area. SPX daily chart:
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has violated its “Dec 14 FOMC low” at 100.73, and is in route to probe important support at its prior two major 2015 peaks at 100.47 (Dec 3, 2015) and at 100.39 (Mar 13, 2015). If these levels are violated and sustained, this will argue for a deeper correction into the 99.00-98.40 area as a next immediate target zone.
Let’s notice the glaring weekly momentum divergence at the 2017 high compared with the price momentum confirmation that occurred at the March 2015 high.
The juxtaposition of the intermediate-term momentum gauges with the unconfirmed new-high price action is a powerful warning that the USD could be in the early phase of a major correction of its May 2011 to Jan 2017 Bull Market.
Mike Paulenoff is founder of MPTrader.com, where he provides live intraday analysis and trade alerts covering the equity, commodity, and currency markets.