Daily Archives: January 19, 2017

Netflix’s Amazing Run

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Back in the 1990s, I remember being at a friend’s house in Los Gatos. He was mulling over an offer to become a fairly high-ranking executive at a young company called Netflix, which mailed DVDs on a subscription basis. He decided not to bother.

I guess he can join the rest of us that looks at the NFLX stock chart and thinks about What Might Have Been. The percentage chart below tells the story; indeed, you don’t even have to imagine yourself as being offered a job in the 1990s. Even buying as recently as a few years ago would have yielded an ungodly return. Since the IPO, it’s up about 12,000% and even with a P/E of 330, people are still buying the goddamned thing.


Rising Channel Established on ES

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Boring tape so far this week but the interesting news yesterday on ES was that a rising channel was established from the 2227 low. Channel support is now at 2260.75 and a break below would be bearish. All of ES, NQ & TF are now on weak 60min buy signals, so my lean is that channel support holds and ES has a decent chance of making the all time high retest today or tomorrow, though the tape this week so far has been memorably dull. ES Mar 60min chart:

170119 AM ES Mar 60min


The Slow Burn

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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the last day of Obama’s presidency. For the bears, Obama has represented nothing but an unbroken string of misery. He seems like a good family man, but Lord in heaven, I will have horrible memories of his administration from a trading perspective until my dying day.

Having said that, the ES stalled on its Trumpgasm weeks ago. After the “oh my God, it’s going to be Trump” limit-down collapse in the ES (which, if I recall correctly, was about 230 years ago), equities went on a vertical tear. It looked like another breakout was underway (green tint), but that flopped, and we’ve been slightly under the broken trendline ever since.