Straining at Gnats

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Another day of bumping round slightly above the daily middle band so far. A retest of the high is really just a few handles away, but much of the last few weeks have been spent watching SPX repeatedly fail to retest the all time high at the time by a few handles. There’s a nice short term setup on ES to deliver the ATH retest but it remains to be seem whether that will be enough to get us there this week. This may just continue to kick around until after the Inauguration.

As and when the high is made, SPX is due a minimum 3.9% retracement from the punch over the weekly upper band a few weeks ago. That should get SPX much of the way back to rising wedge support, currently in the 2155 area. SPX daily chart:

170118 SPX Daily

On ES a weak 60min buy signal has fixed overnight and there is a possible double bottom setup to deliver the high retest. First though ES needs to establish support at the weekly pivot at 2264.75, and that’s still very much a work in progress at the moment. ES Mar 60min chart:

170118 AM ES Mar 60min

A weak 60min buy signal has also fixed on NQ, and the ATH retest there is tantalisingly close. Weekly pivot may have been established as support there. NQ Mar 60min chart:

170118 AM NQ Mar 60min

TF has been weaker than the other two, but seems to be making a higher low with a possible double bottom setup forming. TF Mar 60min chart:

170118 AM TF Mar 60min

As long as SPX can hold the daily middle band at 2265 as support then we should see at least an ATH retest, ideally soon. If we see a closing break below the middle band on SPX, and then a confirming break below the following day, then the high may already be in. RUT/TF and NDX/NQ are already on daily sell signals, and that break would likely fix the daily RSI 14 sell signal brewing on SPX.

Stan and I are doing a free educational webinar on using fibonacci sequences in trading on Thursday an hour after the close at, and if you’d like to attend you can register for that on this page here.

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