The Slow Burn

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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the last day of Obama’s presidency. For the bears, Obama has represented nothing but an unbroken string of misery. He seems like a good family man, but Lord in heaven, I will have horrible memories of his administration from a trading perspective until my dying day.

Having said that, the ES stalled on its Trumpgasm weeks ago. After the “oh my God, it’s going to be Trump” limit-down collapse in the ES (which, if I recall correctly, was about 230 years ago), equities went on a vertical tear. It looked like another breakout was underway (green tint), but that flopped, and we’ve been slightly under the broken trendline ever since.

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It’ll be interesting to see, once the man is actually sworn in, if any sort of reality starts to slip into the brains of traders (e.g. the “my God, what have we DONE? moment”), but perhaps a bigger driver of stocks will be earnings, as that season will be fully kicked in by next week.

For myself, I’m, presently in 48 short positions, three of which are ETFs (EEM, EWW, and XLV). I tend to have a concentration in energy shorts. Also, in a separate, personal account, I have my rather substantial long position in DUST, which given gold’s double-digit price drop this morning, is certainly looking better than a couple of days ago.

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