Intense day today and I didn’t manage to get a post out in RTH through a combination of a series of technical issues, lost work that needed to be repeated, and a lifelong love of quality pancakes. I’m doing a quick pre-speech post now as it will likely save some time on what is likely to be a very busy (and sadly pancake free) day tomorrow.
I won’t show any SPX charts today but I would note that a daily RSI 5 sell signal fixed on SPX today. This uptrend is fragile and while I’m still looking for a slightly higher high here a bad reaction to the speech could break the important support that held on SPX and RUT particularly today, and break the bull setups I’m showing on the ES and NQ charts below, and trigger the bear scenario that I’m looking at on the TF chart.
First published Sat Feb 25 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net: As the GLD and silver continued in their paths higher this week, there is no suggestion from price action that they have met the top to this current rally. However, the lagging in the miner complex certainly has made many heads turn.
Now, I have always preached “each chart on its own,” and this is a great example of why. You see, until this past week, silver was leading the complex, with the GDX not far behind it, and GLD bringing up the rear. This “leader-board” is purely based upon the Fibonacci extensions which they have each struck during this last multi-month rally.
With silver breaking out through 18.20, it has now moved up to its 1.236 extension, whereas the GLD has only slightly moved through its .764 extension. Yet, the GDX still consolidating below its .764 extension. But, the fact that GDX has still not been able to break through its resistance has left it in a position where it can still pullback down towards the 21.50-22 region, but, clearly, that would not be my preference at this time.
I just finished watching, for the umpteenth time, Spartan, starring Val Kilmer. Made in 2004, it is absolutely superb. There’s nothing quite like a David Mamet screenplay. I offer one of my favorite quotes from the movie, which should be Slope’s motto: “I’ve got two things for you boys. That’s a stiff dick and bubble gum. And guess what: I’m all out of bubble gum.”
I don’t trade TSLA anymore, but I wanted to point out that it seems to have bounced off its resistance trendline for the third time, which may presage much lower prices ahead. Personally I think the Model 3 is going to be an amazing success, but I also think it’s going to hugely cannibalize sales of the thrice-as-expensive Model S. Frankly I think the Model 3 is really underpriced. They could easily charged $20,000 more per unit, which would be pure profit.