Monthly Archives: March 2017

Drifting Up

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The third day of the 5dma Three Day Rule came and went without a break down, and SPX closed yesterday above the daily middle band in a clear win for bulls. That needs to be confirmed with another close above the middle band today, and that is currently at 2364.

On the hourly chart the 50 hour MA has been converted to support, currently at 2353, and SPX is trying to do the same with the 100 and 200 hour MAs, currently at 2362 and 2366 respectively. If those convert too then the next target will be falling megaphone resistance, currently in the 2377 area, and I’d note that the falling megaphone is a likely bull flag on the bigger picture, so if that megaphone resistance breaks then the minimum target is then a retest of the all time high. SPX 60min chart:

170331 SPX 60min

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Whatever

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One of the earliest lessons I taught my children was that “whatever” was a much, much worse word than the word “fuck”. I never want to hear it. They know not to say it.

In this instance, though, I’m going to use it. Because there was a time that headlines from ZeroHedge like this one would get me all excited:

0331-laqst

After eight solid years of disappointment, however, one eventually becomes jaded. The central banks of the world aren’t going to suddenly wake up and decide to let the markets actually engage in true price discovery. They are going to keep their hands wrapped around the market’s throat until they can’t do it anymore. It could be years, or decades.

The hilarious aspect of this is shown below, which is a marvelous comment in the same article. It speaks for itself, and the author kindly provides links to every single one:

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As you can see, ZH has been trotted out these “The last time….…….” articles for years now. I think the best choice is to ignore all of them from now on.

Whatever.

The Steadfast Top

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I’m in sort of an odd psychological position, because I have the largest precious metals short I’ve ever taken on in my life (by way of JDST), and yet it seems to be more or less inversely correlated to equities. Thus, if miners are sinking (yay!) then equities are rising (boo!) and vice versa. So I’m never happy. Typical Tim.

Anyway, the equity top seems to be holding up, in spite of the bulls trying all week long to slash my throat again. The Dow Jones Composite, shown below, needs to stay beneath 7180.

0331-comp