This is not a top call. My target was Dow 21,000 and this pig blew through it and flew to 21,115. This is a comparison of one bubble to
another a potential other.
In 2011 silver put on an amazing run. First, it dropped and crashed the SMA 50 at the beginning of the year. Then it rebounded, became over bought by RSI (and distance from the SMA 50), tested the short-term EMA 20 and then went all Sky Lab, making a 2nd strenuously overbought reading on RSI. Then… kerplunk.
Apologies for the erratic posts this week, which has been very busy and I’m somewhat short on sleep. Just covering SPX today as I have to head out shortly.
Impressive trend day up on SPX yesterday and the high has established a decent quality possible rising wedge trendline from the November low. If so SPX is topping out here short term and I’d expect at least a retest of 50 hour MA support in the near future. That’s currently in the 2369 area. I was thinking a retest of the high first was likely but so far it’s possible that SPX is trending down today, and on a break under 2380 we might see that test today. SPX 60min chart:
As SNAP approaches its opening trades, which are rumored to be WAY above the offering price, I’d like to mention another “fad” stock which is my second-best performer in my portfolio: 3-D Systems, oft-mentioned here on SOH. I intend to hang on to this one, as I believe much, much lower prices are ahead. Sort of like – I dunno – companies like SNAP in a few weeks.
I rarely do posts about being “done” with a trade, but I did so yesterday for Slope Plus subscribers, early in the morning, with respect to gold and miners. The 50% gain on DUST in three weeks was a great winner, and the Fibonacci retracement on GDX looked like support.
As I looked at the charts later in the day, I did feel that miners might be largely complete with their down-move, but I was having second thoughts about gold. It still seemed like it had a decent prospect of falling. This morning, that thought seems to be borne out, as we’re down nearly $12. The key to watch, however, is the $1235 (approximately) level. That would be a fairly important trendline break.