Daily Archives: March 13, 2017

The U.S. Economy, Post-Payrolls & Pre-FOMC

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This week’s Notes From the Rabbit Hole included a little Payrolls/Wages related economic discussion before moving on to the usual coverage of stock markets, commodities, precious metals, bonds, currencies and related indicators and market internals.  With FOMC on tap there will be more data noise directly ahead, but then I expect markets to smooth out into what is looking like a sensible short and intermediate-term plan.

U.S. Economy

Graphic sources:  St. Louis Fed, BLS, TradingEconomics, Macrotrends & Bespoke Premium

So Payrolls came in a little firmer than expected and interestingly, the manufacturing sectors did some solid hiring. This is an area that is sensitive to coming fiscal policy because it is subject to regulations likely to be repealed (especially environmental, a real fundamental underpinning) and high paying jobs repatriation to U.S. shores (a phony baloney fundamental, at least in large part, in my opinion). In this graph we see that manufacturing job losses had been easing into the election, but job gains have ramped up after the election. All of this on anticipated policy changes? (more…)

A Modest Inflection Point

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I had to redraw it slightly but Friday’s falling channel on SPX has held so far this morning. As this channel is a likely bull flag channel on the bigger picture I’m watching it very carefully. The short term rising support within the channel has broken down and if channel resistance continues to hold then the next obvious target is channel support, currently in the 2349 area. SPX 15min chart:

170313 SPX 15min

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SNAP=Short Now And Profit

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I’m a chartist, so I don’t normally make a habit of shorting stocks that have just a few days of historical data. I made an exception for SNAP, however, since everything – – everything!! – – about this company screams “ridiculous overvalued bubble”, including, but not limited to, Evan Spiegel’s smug little cleft-chinned face on every magazine cover including, importantly, Time:

0312snap

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